Jere Webb Idaho Real Estate Blog

RECORD LOW REAL ESTATE INVENTORY IN THE TREASURE VALLEY

jerewebbhomes — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 14:55:53 +0000

For the first time in 70 months home inventory has fallen below the 2,000 level in Ada County. You have to go back to January of 2006 to find a time when inventory levels were lower than this! Canyon is the same with the inventory dropping below 900 for the first time since February 2006.

A16 – Ada County Residential INVENTORY

So, what does this mean? Fewer options for buyers, prices will continue to firm up. It is now a seller’s market at a very greatly adjusted pricing point. In general the prices are back to 2002 levels! But there is only a 3.1 months supply of resale homes currently on the market. New Construction is a different story. Builders are pushing ahead as much as they dare with more than a 7 months supply of homes available.

PRICING INCREASES FOR TREASURE VALLEY REAL ESTATE

jerewebbhomes — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 14:45:48 +0000

The Median price for a resale home in Ada County was 7% higher in December than the January 2011 low point. That is a sign that the Valley real estate market may have bottomed out several months ago. Here is a chart that takes a longer term view and plots 6 month blocks of median pricing.

A15 – Ada County EXISTING Last 6 Months MEDIAN Sales Price

The December decrease reflects a seasonal pattern that has repeated itself for the past 6 years. Once the January 2012 numbers are in we will have an excellent reference point to compare with the previous low in 2011.

2011 Treasure Valley Real Estate in Perspective

jerewebbhomes — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 14:31:38 +0000

The numbers are in and there are a lot of bright spots for the Treasure Valley! For the third year in a row home sales have increased since the low in 2008. Ada County is up 26% in unit sales since then; Canyon 48%.

Also there is a strong gain over 2010. 5% in Ada and 6% in Canyon. Here is a picture of unit sales activity since 1999 in Ada.

A1 – Ada County Yearly Sales History

Here is the same picture that breaks out the New Construction from the resale. No wonder so many builders are out of business! However I believe that 2011 will be the “bottom point” for New Construction and we will see an uptick in 2012.

A1A – Ada County Yearly Sales History

BOISE HOME PRICE MOVING UP – INVENTORY DOWN

jerewebbhomes — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 20:09:30 +0000

The median price of a resale home in Ada County was $138,200 in November. This is up 9% from the low of $126,500 in January 2011. Even more significant than a single month is the gain being posted using a “6 month rolling median”. Using this measurement, June 2011 was the low point and there have been solid gains since then. Check out this chart!

A15 – Ada County EXISTING Last 6 Months MEDIAN Sales Price

Canyon County is showing a gaudy 17% increase in Median Sales price this month over the low 5/11 of $72,500!

Inventory continues its downward trend at a rate that can only signal additional upward price pressure in coming months. At this time in 2007 there were 4542 homes on the market for sale. November of 2011 – 2166. That is less than half! Also at this time 397 of the listings shown as “Active” already have short sale contracts on them. So in reality there are only 1769 homes that are truly “Active” for sale at this moment. You have to go back to 2000 & 2005 to find an inventory lower at the end of November. Here is a picture:

A16 – Ada County Residential INVENTORY

What this also signals is a rebirth of new construction coming in 2012. Smart builders will be careful however to position specs at the right price points. The lower ones are already flooded. Believe it or not there is a niche open between 300 and 500 thousand for new construction right now! Here are two charts that back that up.

AC24 - NOVEMBER 2011 YTD SELLING ODDS New Construction

A45 – Ada County Year to Date SALES & INVENTORY ANALYSIS New Construction –

If you would like more information please call: Jere Webb, Realtor. Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group. 208.861.2222

TREASURE VALLEY REAL ESTATE FINALLY CLIMBS OFF THE MAT!

jerewebbhomes — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 22:17:26 +0000

The real estate market in the Idaho Treasure Valley is showing signs of life in spite of everything going on in the rest of the world! Check out these facts just revealed with my October 2011 Webb Chart data analysis:

1. For the first time in over 4 years the median sales price in October showed an increase from the same month prior year! This breaks a 52 month pattern where every month was lower. And to demonstrate that it is not a fluke consider this. . .

2. Median resale pricing in Ada County is UP 11% since establishing a market bottom in January 2011!

3. Inventory “months of supply” using a model that approximates the one used by the National Association of Realtors set a record low in October 2011. 3.7 in Ada and 3.3 months of supply in Canyon. You have to go back to June of 2006 to find numbers that low and we all know what was happening then!

What does all this mean if you are a buyer? Seller? Or just not sure what to do? Give me a call and I can help you sort it out!

Jere Webb C:208.861.2222

jw@jerewebb.com

www.jerewebb.com

GREAT ARTICLE

jerewebbhomes — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 18:16:17 +0000

As Protestant Christians we say that “the Bible alone is our source of authority” but is that really true? Should it be? This article gave me some new thoughts and I like that!

Three Sources of Authority that have shaped Christian Theology

REAL ESTATE SALES UP, INVENTORY PLUNGING, PRICES UP!

jerewebbhomes — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 00:51:17 +0000

September numbers are in for the Treasure Valley in Idaho and Inventory continues it precipitous drop. Looking at Ada County since July of 2010 inventory has declined from 3760 to 2327 total homes for sale. And if you out looking at homes you need to subtract 397 short sales that are still showing as active buy have a contract in place already just waiting for lien holder approval. So the real current inventory level is 1930! You have to go back 11 years to 2000 to find inventory this low except for the boom year of 2005!

A16 – Ada County Residential INVENTORY

Sales for 2011 are 6% ahead of 2010 through September. Median sold price for a resale home was $135,000 in Ada County. This is a significant decrease from $144,900 in August but still 7% above the January 2011 low of $126,500.

Ada County Resale Home Prices Keep on Moving UP!

jerewebbhomes — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 22:36:27 +0000

Median price for a resale home increased 1.3% in August from the month before. Since a low in January prices have moved up for 6 of the 7 months. That makes a 14.5% INCREASE since January 2011!

A12 – Ada County Existing Monthly Median Sales Price

As a further evidence of price upward movement, the discount from the last asking price to the final sales price in August was 0%. This calculation includes new construction as well as resale homes in Ada County.

A43 – Ada County Sales Price % Discount from List Price

What is causing this? Not too hard to figure out when you look at the continuing inventory shortage. The county is down to 2467 “Active Listings.” That is a record low for the last 10 years with the exception of 2005; but it is even more acute than this figure. 423 homes showing “Active” actually are “Contingent Short Sale” and already have a contract in place from a buyer. Plus another 218 homes in the inventory are “To be Built” which means they don’t exist! So there are really only about 1800 homes currently available to show prospective buyers.

A16 – Ada County Residential Inventory

For more information on the market and/or assistance in a real estate transaction contact Jere Webb.

208.861.2222

jw@jerewebb.com

www.jerewebb.com

ADA COUNTY HOME PRICES MOVE UP

jerewebbhomes — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 19:48:19 +0000

For the first time in 3 years there is a significant upward movement in meidian resale pricing in the Treasure Valley. This chart looks at a 6 month rolling median for resale homes in Ada County with July 2011 showing the move up after 35 months of decline!

A15 Ada County Existing Last 6 months Median Sales Price

Why are prices moving up? Supply and demand. There is an acute inventory shortage. Builders are not building a lot of specs so the resale inventory is shrinking. Bank owned property is now less than 5% of the inventory and short sales are still a struggle; so buyers are pulling down the normal existing resale inventory at a record rate!

For more information on the market contact Jere Webb, Realtor with Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group at 208.861.2222

2011 TREASURE VALLEY HOME SALES EXCEED 2010

jerewebbhomes — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 19:37:49 +0000

Year to date home sales in the Treasure Valley are now running ahead of 2010 in both Ada & Canyon County. Canyon is now running ahead by 6%. Ada just passed up 2010 levels in the month of July.

A4 Ada County Monthly Sales Units Year to Date

C4 Canyon County Monthly Sales Units Year to Date

Inventories are now running critically low! In Ada County there are fewer homes available to show buyers not than at any time since 1999 with the exception of 2005 when our market was going crazy with investors.

Distressed sales are down also in both Counties. For the last 2 months in Ada there have been more “normal sales” than distressed. That reverses a pattern that had been just the opposite for 7 months in a row prior to this time.

A50 Ada County Distressed/Non Distressed Sales

Pendings are also up which bodes well for sales in the coming months. The tax credit for first time home buyers “front loaded” the 2010 market so the fact that sales have already exceeded 2010 levels is extraordinary.

If you are really into stats here is a chart that you might find most interesting! It calculates the new business written each month and compares that to closings in order to predict future sales levels. Enjoy )

A54 Ada County Future Business Forecast

If you would like more information on the local real estate market contact Jere Webb @ 208.861.2222.