Webb Charts Class – January 17, 2018

19 12 2017

Title One – Meridian  2-4pm

Current Registration List:  (Updated 1.16.18)

  1. Alexander, Liz     John L Scott
  2. Arnadottir, Hafdis   Coldwell Banker
  3. Barela, Diana     Silverhawk
  4. Bruner, Kyle     Re/Max West
  5. Busby, Al     Coldwell Banker
  6. Cady, Bill   Today’s
  7. Choudeck, Debbie   Gold Star
  8. DiMattio, Ricky     Woyak
  9. Dobbs, Reg     Re/Max Executives
  10. Dusenbury, Randall   Atova
  11. Ellis, Karen   Coldwell Banker
  12. Enrico, Andy     Andy Enrico
  13. Fitzsimmons, Tom     Preview of Homes
  14. Gussie, Karen     Client
  15. Humphrey, Darrell     Silvercreek
  16. Jordan, Patty     Brandt
  17. King, Seth     Title One
  18. Knoeller, Holly   Better Homes & Gardens
  19. Kuzmack, Thorey   Accel
  20. LaBour, Heather     Client
  21. Langley, Angel     Silvercreek
  22. McChristy, Patrick     Silvercreek
  23. McFarland, Don     Re/Max West
  24. Mock, Laurie   Silvercreek
  25. Munson, Mary   Authority
  26. Nielsen, David     Silvercreek
  27. Nussbaum, Gail     Coldwell Banker
  28. Oliver, Julie     Keller Williams
  29. Pitron, Georgie     Better Homes and Gardens
  30. Re, Bill     Silvercreek
  31. Rogan, Joe     Re/Max West
  32. Rogan, Sherry     Re/Max West
  33. Rudolph, Krista     Genesis
  34. Talbert, Pat     Woyak
  35. Thompson, Sean     Silvercreek
  36. Ward, Mikel   Group One
  37. Zehner, Monique   Atova

 

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Stats 101 Class – January 17, 2018

19 12 2017

Title One – Meridian  12:30 – 1:45pm

Current Registration List:  (updated 1.15.18)

  1. Abel, Justin     208
  2. Brewer, Francis     Silvercreek
  3. Brown, Michael     Available
  4. Bruner, Kyle     Re/Max West
  5. Butler, Sandy     Homes of Idaho
  6. Choudeck, Debbie   Gold Star
  7. DiMattio, Ricky   Woyak
  8. Dyer, Dianne     Better Homes and Gardens
  9. Goodrich, Hana     Silvercreek
  10. Gussie, Karen     Client
  11. Hosbein, Liz     Homes of Idaho
  12. Humphrey, Darrell   Silvercreek
  13. Jordan, Patty     Brandt
  14. Kraemer, Teresa     Homes of Idaho
  15. Kuzmack, Thorey   Accel
  16. LaBour, Heather     Client
  17. Luckow, Karla     Dreamcatcher
  18. McChristy, Patrick     Silvercreek
  19. McKenzie, Tami   Equity Northwest
  20. Mock, Laurie   Silvercreek
  21. Oliver, Julie     Keller Williams
  22. Pyles, Ward     Homes of Idaho
  23. Snell, Debbie     Gold Star
  24. Stockman, Stephanie     Homes of Idaho
  25. Wickham, Debbie     Boise Premier

 





Webb Chart Classes – January 17, 2018

6 12 2017

Wednesday, January 17 Chart Classes at Title One in Meridian.

12:30pm – Stats 101 – NOT for experienced Chart users – Free to all

2-4pm – Regular Chart Class – “A Quick Look at 2017 in Perspective – and Planning for 2018” – Tuition $50 FREE for Chart Subscribers

Reserve your spot at http://www.jerewebb.com





Real Estate Market Update

27 09 2017
AUGUST 2017 Inside Scoop – Ada County
If you like to keep score 13 vs. 3 :o)
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in in Bold
 
1.  Sales are UP 6% from last month, 13% UP from this same month last year.  Chart A3 
 
2.  Pending sales are down 4% from last month, UP 12% from a year ago. Chart A47, A48, & A49.
 
3.  The dollar volume was UP 8% from last month and 23% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5  
 
4.  Year to date sales units UP 1% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 10% higher this year.  More price increases are ahead for 2017. . . .  perhaps a 6-7% increase in median resale for 2017 over 2016.  Chart A6.  
 
5.  New Construction Median price UP 6% this month – and an 8% Increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9
 
6.  Resale Median UP  2% this month – and a 10% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.
 
7.  Resale Affordability Unchanged now 23%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 18% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 29%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 13%.  Interest Rates continue at record lows but have gone from 3.47% to 4.20% just since the election. .now in May falling back to 4.01%, June 3.9% .Charts A39, A40, and A41.
 
8.  Inventory is down 1% from last month and 12% lower than last year at this time.  This is a very significant number.  Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more.  Charts A16 & A17
 
9.  New Construction inventory Down– 711 from 724 last month.  Last year at this time there were 749 new homes for sale.  Record high 09/06 at 1890!  Record low  06/13 at 494 but it has surged up since then.  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
 
10.  Resale inventory is Down. – 1226 from 1228 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1440 resale homes for sale!!!.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   January 2017 is the NEW LOW Point in resale inventory at 555.  This is at least a 17 Year Low!  Good News for Builders!  Lack of inventory is forcing more new construction activity.  Chart A21
 
11.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is Down.  This month’s 1.7 from 1.8 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  NEW Record low – 06/17 at 1.6!  Chart A26.
 
12.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is unchanged.  Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    This month’s 1.7 from 1.7 last month.  This is a critical benchmark number.  Last year at this time it was 2.0.  Chart A28
 
13.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.1 from 2.9 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time there was a 3.7 month inventory supply.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A30
14.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is unchanged.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 1.4 from 1.4 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 1.7 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
 
15.  Final Sales Discount is unchanged.  From the last asking price to final sales price,  0.3% from 0.3% last month.  Record low – 05/17 0.2%.  Last year at this time it was 0.7%.  Chart 43
 
16.  Future Business Forecast is below 100%.  A54.  93%  – so closings next month will be below this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 94%.
 
 




May 2017 Real Estate Update – Ada County Idaho

9 06 2017
1.  Sales are UP 21% from last month, 2% down from this same month last year.  Chart A3 
 
2.  Pending sales are UP 7% from last month, down 1% from a year ago. – humm  Resale Pendings DOWN 12% from a year ago.  All of that slack is being made up for in New Construction. Chart A47, A48, & A49.
 
3.  The dollar volume was Up 25% from last month and 7% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5  
 
4.  Year to date sales units down 2% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 5% higher this year.  More price increases are ahead for 2017.  Chart A6.  
 
6.  Resale Median UP this month – $247,500.  This is a 4% change from last month; and a 8% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.
 
7.  Resale Affordability UNCHANGED now 22%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 18% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 29%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 13%.  Interest Rates continue at record lows but have gone from 3.47% to 4.20% just since the election. .now in May falling back to 4.01% .Charts A39, A40, and A41.
 
8.  Inventory is up 6% from last month and 12% lower than last year at this time.  This is a very significant number.  Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more.  Charts A16 & A17
 
9.  New Construction inventory down. – 756 from 785  last month.  Last year at this time there were 785 new homes for sale.  Record high 09/06 at 1890!  Record low  06/13 at 494 but it has surged up since then.  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
 
10.  Resale inventory is up. – 1052 from 920 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1274 resale homes for sale!!!.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   January 2017 is the NEW LOW Point in resale inventory at 555.  This is at least a 17 Year Low!  Good News for Builders!  Lack of inventory is forcing more new construction activity.  Chart A21
 
11.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is Down.  This month’s 1.8 from 2.0 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  NEW Record low – 05/17 at 1.8!  Chart A26.
 
12.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    This month’s 1.9 from 2.0 last month.  This is a critical benchmark number.  Last year at this time it was 2.1.  Chart A28
14.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is Down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 1.4 from 1.5 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 1.6 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
 
15.  Final Sales Discount is down.  From the last asking price to final sales price,  0.2% from 0.5% last month.  Record low – 03/17 0.3%.  Last year at this time it was 0.4%.  Chart 43
 
 




January 2017 Real Estate Charts – Treasure Valley Idaho

7 02 2017
4 New Canyon County Charts.  In response to Al Busby’s request you will now find a pricing breakdown for New Construction Average Price & Median; as well as Resale of the same for Canyon.  This should be a great benefit if you do business in Canyon County.
 
A39L = Long View of Affordability.  I put this one in knowing that the data can’t be precisely read; but it does give clients a picture of “Affordability” from the peak of the bubble to the present time which is an excellent perspective.  When I have more time I plan to manually eliminate a lot of the overlapping data point labels and just show peaks and valleys.  Look for that in “future improvements.”  Please consider this one just a very “rough draft.”
Note: Major change in Ada Affordability Charts for January 2017.  I found Government Census information that confirms what we thought in class – Ada Median Household Income has NOT continued up 3%/year since the last official census.  Even this data through January 2015 is still only an “educated guess” by the census department and may be adjusted later.  But it is certainly more in keeping with what we are all feeling.  So in keeping with this data my “interpolations” for the last two years reflect this new data and it does make a significant difference as you can see by about 6-7%!
 
Mark the date: July 12 next Chart Classes at Title One in Meridian.  Thank you Laurie Burchfield for the Demo at Stats 101.  In the future I would like to have her play an even bigger role in teaching our Chart Classes.  Remember she IS the “Instigator!”  :o)




Treasure Valley Market News

13 09 2016

AUGUST 2016 Inside Scoop – Ada County
1. Sales are down 4% from last month, 20% up from this same month last year. Chart A3

2. Pending sales are down 4% from last month, up 25% from a year ago. So exactly the same as a month ago – Pendings still showing strength compared to last year. Chart A47, A48, & A49.

6. Year to date sales units up 14% from a year ago Chart A4. The year to date dollar volume is 21% higher this year. Remember our 7/21 class “mid year price projection!” So keep watching this spread – it is at 7% now. Chart A6.

11. Inventory is DOWN 2% from last month and 11% lower than last year at this time. This is a very significant number. Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more. Right now I am projecting a 6.5% increase in Median Resale Equity Pricing for 2016 compared to 2015. Eagle will double that! Charts A16 & A17

AUGUST 2016 Inside Scoop – Canyon County

1. Sales are UP 9% from last month. Comparing this month to the same month last year there is a 9% increase. Chart C3

2. Pending sales are down 4% from last month. UP 23% from this same month last year. Chart C47, C48, & C49.

6. Year to Date Sales Units up for 2016. 13% cumulative Year to date. Year to date dollar volume is 26% higher. Chart C4. This will be the year for big price increases in Canyon County as more and more buyers are headed west out of Ada to find affordable housing.

11. Inventory is down 1% from last month; and 17% lower than last year at this time. Here come higher prices! Charts C16 & C17