MARCH 2013 MARKET PERSPECTIVE FOR BOISE ID

5 04 2013

As I look at the March Ada County numbers I see a lot of positive:

1.  Sales are up 20% from last month, and 8% up from this same month last year.  Chart A3
 
2.  Pending sales are up 21% from last month, and are up 12% from a year ago. New Construction surge continues up 34% from a year ago, resale pendings are up 5%. Chart A47, A48, & A49.
 
3.  Distressed sales were down this month.  Short Sales were 11% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 8%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 19% of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%.  This is the “healthiest” month since 09/08 in terms of the greatest % of Equity Sales!    Chart A42
 
4.  Short Sales closing success % unchanged,  – 14% this month.  12/10 high of 22%.  Low 1/10 at 10%.  A53
 
5.  The dollar volume was up 30% from last month and 38% up from this same month last year in dollar volume of sales.  Chart A5
 
6.  Year to date sales UP – 3% more units than a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 27% higher this year.  “Higher prices!”  Chart A6.  
 
7.  Median Price Up for a home sold this month  – $186,900.  This is 3% UP from last month; and a 23% increase from this same month last year!   Chart A10
 
8.  New Construction Median price up this month – $253,070.  This is up 5% from last month; and a 25% increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9
 
9.  Resale Median UP this month – $173,500.  This is up 8% from last month; and a 26% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.  
 
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 3.2 from 3.7 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .  Record low may have been – 04/12 at 3.0!  You have to go back to 05/06 to find a lower supply at 2.9!  . .Chart A26.
 
15.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Keep an eye on chart A27, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    Chart A28 features a longer time period view of just the county wide average number.  This month’s 3.5 from 4.1 last month.
 
16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 4.8 from 6.1 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time it was 6.5.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A29 & A30
 
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.1 from 3.5 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.3 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A31 & A32
 
19.  Future Business Forecast is up above 100%.  A54.  132%  – so closings next month should be up considerably from this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 130%.

For more information contact Jere Webb at 208.861.2222.  Or by email at jw@jerewebb.com

http://www.jerewebb.com

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