2013 Ada County Real Estate News Update

7 01 2014

 DECEMBER 2013 Inside Scoop – Ada County

If you like to keep score 13vs. 6:o)
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in in Bold
 

1.  Sales are up 6% from last month, and 15% up from this same month last year.  Chart A3  Is the market slowing?  That is what everyone is wondering?  Looking at the comparisons to the same month last year the numbers for this year are: -6%, 4%, 8%, 9%, 35%, 19%, 40%, 15%, 23%, -1%, -4% and now +15% this month.  What caused this “rush to close” in December?  It didn’t happen in Ada, just Canyon.

 
4.  Short Sales closing success % up,  – 17% this month.  12/10 high of 22%.  Low 1/10 at 10%.  A53  December usually sees an increase but this year did not come up as much as prior ones.
5.  The dollar volume was up 6% from last month and 31% up from this same month last year in dollar volume of sales.  Chart A5
 
6.  Year to date sales units UP – 14% more units than a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 33% higher this year.  That spreads points to the approximately 19% price increase that there has been over the last year – leaving the distressed sales in the calculation!  Chart A6.  
 
8.  New Construction Median price up this month – $284,608.  This is up 3% from last month; and a 25% increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9 
 
10.  Affordability unchanged from last month- now 15%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.  So with the rapid rise in prices and the interest rate increase it is not as “affordable” now; but still much better than at the height of the market in 2006.  Charts A39, A40, and A41.
 
11.  Inventory is down 13% from last month and 16% higher than last year at this time.  While the inventory is still relatively low, the large increase will effectively “slow” the rapid rise in prices.  Charts A16 & A17
 
12.  New Construction inventory down. – 733 from 756 last month.  Last year at this time there were 583 new homes for sale.  New Construction inventory has dropped for 57 of the last 87 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006.  Record low  0613 at 494 but it has surged up since then – Builders Beware!  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
 
13.  Resale inventory is down. – 1285 from 1576 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1155 resale homes for sale.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Some pent up demand being released here as more owners finally have a bit of equity and can make a move.  Chart A21
 
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 3.5 from 4.2 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .Record low 05/13 at 2.3!  Chart A26.
 
15.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Keep an eye on chart A27, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    Chart A28 features a longer time period view of just the county wide average number.  This month’s 3.6 from 4.0 last month.
 
16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down slightly.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 6.1 from 6.2 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time it was 5.0  Builders Beware!  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A29 & A30
 
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 2.9 from 3.4 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 2.8 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A31 & A32
 
 
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