Ada County Real Estate News

11 04 2014

 MARCH 2014 Inside Scoop – Ada County

If you like to keep score 14vs.5:o)
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in inBold
 
1.  Sales are up 40% from last month, and 4% up from this same month last year.  Chart A3 
 
2.  Pending sales are UP 17% from last month, BUT and are down 14% from a year ago. Chart A47, A48, & A49.  This is concerning. . .
 
3.  Distressed sales were down this month.  Short Sales were 5% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 7%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 11% (with rounding) of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%.  Chart A42
 
4.  Short Sales closing success % up,  – 16% this month.  12/10 high of 22%.  Low 1/14 at 9%.  A53 
 
5.  The dollar volume was up 47% from last month and 8% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5 
 
6.  Year to date sales units Up – 2% more units than a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 10% higher this year.  That spread is tightening indicating a slow down from the big price increases of 2012 and 2013.  Chart A6.  
  
9.  Resale Median up this month – $181,000.  This is up 7% from last month; and a 4% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.  Not a lot of upper end closings in February and that has really affected the median price for this one month.
  
12.  New Construction inventory down. – 694 from 749 last month.  Last year at this time there were 572 new homes for sale.  New Construction inventory has dropped for 59 of the last 90 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006.  Record low  0613 at 494 but it has surged up since then – Builders Beware!  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
 
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 3.8 from 5.0 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .Record low 05/13 at 2.3!  Chart A26.
 
15.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    This month’s 4.4 from 5.1 last month.  This is a critical benchmark number.
 
16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 6.6 from 7.8 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time it was 4.8.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A30
 
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.8 from 4.3 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.1 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
 
18.  Final Sales Discount is down.  From the last asking price to final sales price, 1.1% from 1.6% last month.  Record low – 06/13 .6%.  Last year at this time it was 1.2%.  Chart 43
 
19.  Future Business Forecast is above 100%.  A54.  122%  – so closings next month should be up from this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 125%.
 
 
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