April ADA County Real Estate News

9 05 2014
 
  APRIL 2014 Inside Scoop – Ada County
If you like to keep score 15 vs.4 :o)
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in inBold
 
1.  Sales are up 14% from last month, BUT 5% down from this same month last year.  Chart A3  This is concerning . . . 
 
2.  Pending sales are UP 11% from last month, BUT down 16% from a year ago. Chart A47, A48, & A49.  This is concerning. . .
 
3.  Distressed sales were unchanged this month.  Short Sales were 4% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 6%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 11% (with rounding) of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%.  Chart A42
 
4.  Short Sales closing success % up,  – 20% this month.  12/10 high of 22%.  Low 1/14 at 9%.  A53.  This is good news!
 
5.  The dollar volume was up 14% from last month and 3% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5 
  
7.  Median Price up for a home sold this month  – $209,000.  This is 5% up from last month; and a 13% increase from this same month last year!   Chart A10
 
8.  New Construction Median price up this month – $307,421.  This is up 2% from last month; and a 18% increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9
 
9.  Resale Median up this month – $189,950.  This is up 5% from last month; and a 9% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.  Not a lot of upper end closings in February and that has really affected the median price for this one month.
 
10.  Resale Affordability unchanged from last month- now 15%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.   Charts A39, A40, and A4
 
 
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 3.6 from 3.8 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .Record low 05/13 at 2.3!  Chart A26.
 
15.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    This month’s 3.9 from 4.4 last month.  This is a critical benchmark number.
 
16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 6.5 from 6.6 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time it was 3.7.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A30
 
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.3 from 3.8 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 2.6 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
 
18.  Final Sales Discount is down.  From the last asking price to final sales price, .6% from 1.1% last month.  Record low – 06/13 .6%.  Last year at this time it was .8%.  Chart 43
 
19.  Future Business Forecast is above 100%.  A54.  117%  – so closings next month should be up from this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 119%.
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