ADA County Real Estate News

10 11 2014
  OCTOBER 2014 Inside Scoop – Ada County
If you like to keep score 16 vs.3 :o)
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in in Bold
 
1.  Sales are up 1% from last month, 7% up from this same month last year.  Chart A3  Here is the “uptick” we noted was coming last month.
 
3.  Distressed sales were down this month.  Short Sales were 2% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 4%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 6% of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%.  Chart A42
 
4.  Short Sales closing success % up – 13% this month.  12/10 high of 22%.  Low 1/14 at 9%.  A53.
 
5.  The dollar volume was up 5% from last month and 6% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5 
 
7.  Median Price up for a home sold this month  – $208,448.  This is 2% up from last month; and a 3% decrease from this same month last year!   This is the first month in 2014 when the median price has been below the same month from the preceding year. . .   Caution!  Further evidence of prices flattening.  Chart A10
 
8.  New Construction Median price up this month – $304,900.  This is up 7% from last month; and a 9% increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9
 
9.  Resale Median up this month – $190,500.  This is up 0% from last month; and a 0% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.
 
10.  Resale Affordability unchanged from last month- now 15%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.   Charts A39, A40, and A41.
 
11.  Inventory is down 10% from last month and 4% higher than last year at this time.  While the inventory is still relatively low, the increase will effectively “slow” the rapid rise in prices.  Charts A16 & A17
 
12.  New Construction inventory down. – 852 from 870 last month.  Last year at this time there were 705 new homes for sale.  New Construction inventory has dropped for 60 of the last 97 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006.  Record low  0613 at 494 but it has surged up since then – Builders Beware!  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
 
13.  Resale inventory is down. – 1761 from 2024 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1812 resale homes for sale.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Chart A21
 
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 3.9 from 4.4 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .Record low 05/13 at 2.3!  Chart A26.
 
15.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    This month’s 4.0 from 4.1 last month.  This is a critical benchmark number.
 
16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 6.7 from 7.0 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time it was 5.1.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A30
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.3 from 3.5 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.5 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
 
18.  Final Sales Discount is down.  From the last asking price to final sales price, 1.4% from 1.5% last month.  Record low – 06/13 .6%.  Last year at this time it was 1.3%.  Chart 43
 
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