ADA County Real Estate News

19 05 2015
 APRIL 2015 Inside Scoop – Ada County
If you like to keep score 11 vs. 8 :o)
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in in Bold
1.  Sales are UP 15% from last month, 22% up from this same month last year.  Wow! Chart A3
2.  Pending sales are UP 16% from last month, up 25% from a year ago. Wow!!! This is strong!  Chart A47, A48, & A49.
3.  Distressed sales were down this month.  Short Sales were 1% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 4%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 4% of the sales (with rounding) “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%.  Chart A42
5.  The dollar volume was UP 11% from last month and 30% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5 
6.  Year to date sales units up 16% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 27% higher this year.  Here come the price increases!  Chart A6.  
9.  Resale Median down this month – $208,500.  This is down 1% from last month; and a 10% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.
10.  Resale Affordability improved from last month- now 15%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.   Charts A39, A40, and A41.
11.  Inventory is up 8% from last month and 7% lower than last year at this time.  Watch this, if it stays below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more.  Charts A16 & A17
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  So demand is outpacing supply!  This month’s 2.8 from 3.0 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .Record low 05/13 at 2.3!  Chart A26.
15.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    This month’s 3.0 from 3.5 last month.  This is a critical benchmark number.  Last year at this time it was 3.9.  Chart A28
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 2.4 from 2.8 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.3 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
18.  Final Sales Discount is down.  From the last asking price to final sales price, 1.0% from 1.2% last month.  Record low – 06/13 .6%.  Last year at this time it was .6%.  Chart 43
19.  Future Business Forecast is above 100%.  A54.  124%  – so closings next month will be above this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 117%.



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