9 09 2015
GUST 2015 Inside Scoop – Ada County
If you like to keep score 6 vs. 13 :o(
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in in Bold
1.  Sales are down 15% from last month, 13% up from this same month last year.  Wow! Chart A3
2.  Pending sales are down 4% from last month, up 41% from a year ago.  Wow, this is huge!  Chart A47, A48, & A49.
5.  The dollar volume was down 17% from last month and 18% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5 
6.  Year to date sales units up 18% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 27% higher this year.  Much bigger price increases this year cp. to 2014!  Chart A6.  
7.  Median Price up for a home sold this month  – $232,000.  This is 1% up from last month; and a 6% increase from this same month last year!    Chart A10
8.  New Construction Median price up this month – $349,642.  This is up 22% from last month; and a 17% increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9
10.  Resale Affordability unchanged from last month- now 17%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.   Charts A39, A40, and A41.
11.  Inventory is down 2% from last month and 18% lower than last year at this time.  This is a very significant number.  Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more.  Charts A16 & A17
12.  New Construction inventory up. – 752 from 749 last month.  Last year at this time there were 818 new homes for sale.  New Construction inventory has dropped for 64 of the last 107 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006.  Record low  0613 at 494 but it has surged up since then.  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
13.  Resale inventory is down. – 1709 from 1760 last month.   Last year at this time there were 2172 resale homes for sale!!!.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Chart A21
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 2.2 from 2.0 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.3 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32



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