ADA County Real Estate News

8 01 2016
  December 2015 Inside Scoop – Ada County
If you like to keep score 14 vs. 5 :o)
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in in Bold
 
1.  Sales are up 27% from last month, 34% up from this same month last year.  Wow! Chart A3  WHY?
 
3.  Distressed sales were unchanged this month.  Short Sales were 2% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 1%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 3% of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%  A distant memory!  Chart A42
 
4.  Short Sales closing success % up – 23% this month.  12/15 high of 23%.  Record Low 11/14 at 9%.  A53.
 
5.  The dollar volume was up 24% from last month and 39% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5 
 
6.  Year to date sales units up 20% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 29% higher this year.  Much bigger price increases this year cp. to 2014!  Chart A6.  
10.  Resale Affordability unchanged from last month- now 16%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.   Charts A39, A40, and A41.
 
11.  Inventory is down 11% from last month and 8% lower than last year at this time.  This is a very significant number.  Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more.  Charts A16 & A17
 
12.  New Construction inventory down. – 846 from 856 last month.  Last year at this time there were 809 new homes for sale.  Record high 09/06 at 1890!  Record low  06/13 at 494 but it has surged up since then.  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
 
13.  Resale inventory is down. – 918 from 1122 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1117 resale homes for sale!!!.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Chart A21
 
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 2.2 from 3.1 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .New Record Low 12/15 2.2!  Previous Record low 05/13 at 2.3!  Chart A26.
 
15.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is unchanged.  Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    This month’s 2.5 from 2.8 last month.  This is a critical benchmark number.  Last year at this time it was 3.4.  Chart A28
 
16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 5.0 from 5.6 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time there was a 7.0 month inventory supply.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A30
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 1.7 from 2.0 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 2.5 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
 
18.  Final Sales Discount is unchanged.  From the last asking price to final sales price, 0.9% from 0.9% last month.  Record low – 06/13 .6%.  Last year at this time it was 1.7%.  Chart 43
 
 
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