ADA County Real Estate News

11 03 2016
 February 2016 Inside Scoop – Ada County
If you like to keep score 13 vs. 6 :o)
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in in Bold
1.  Sales are UP 22% from last month, 14% up from this same month last year.  Chart A3 
2.  Pending sales are UP 29% from last month, up 32% from a year ago.   Chart A47, A48, & A49.
3.  Distressed sales were down this month.  Short Sales were 1% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 1%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 2% of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%  A distant memory!  02/16 is a new record for the most “healthy” sales month in recent history!Chart A42
4.  Short Sales closing success % UP – 11% closed this month.  12/15 high of 23%.  Record Low 11/14 at 9%.  A53.
5.  The dollar volume was UP 30% from last month and 23% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5 
6.  Year to date sales units up 14% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 21% higher this year.  Higher prices will continue in 2016.  Chart A6.  
8.  New Construction Median price up this month – $299,985.  This is up 5% from last month; and a 2% decrease from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9
9.  Resale Median up this month – $212,950.  This is up 1% from last month; and a 8% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.
10.  Resale Affordability improved from last month- now 15%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.  Interest Rates continue at record lows! Charts A39, A40, and A41.
12.  New Construction inventory down. – 765 from 829 last month.  Last year at this time there were 725 new homes for sale.  Record high 09/06 at 1890!  Record low  06/13 at 494 but it has surged up since then.  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 3.0 from 3.5 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .Record Low 12/15 2.2!  Previous Record low 05/13 at 2.3!  Chart A26
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 2.4 from 1.8 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.4 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
18.  Final Sales Discount is down.  From the last asking price to final sales price, 1.1% from 1.4% last month.  Record low – 06/13 .6%.  Last year at this time it was 1.5%.  Chart 43
19.  Future Business Forecast is above 100%.  A54.  151%  – so closings next month will be above this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 135%.



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