Treasure Valley Webb Real Estate News

8 06 2016
ADA County (Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star & Kuna)
1.  Sales are UP 13% from last month, 15% up from this same month last year.  Watch this last number especially – as we chew through the existing inventory and buyers are forced to look at the reality of  NC Pricing, what will happen then?   % won’t be able to buy at the higher price so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this decline. . .by our July class we should know more. . . Chart A3 
 
2.  Pending sales are UP 8% from last month, up 25% from a year ago.   Chart A47, A48, & A49.
 
6.  Year to date sales units up 15% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 22% higher this year.  Higher prices will continue in 2016.  Chart A6.  
7.  Median Price up for a home sold this month  – $242,500.  This is 1% up from last month; and a 6% increase from this same month last year!    Chart A10
10.  Resale Affordability unchangefrom last month- now 16%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.  Interest Rates continue at record lows! Charts A39, A40, and A41.
 
11.  Inventory is up 8% from last month and 13% lower than last year at this time.  This is a very significant number.  Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more.  Charts A16 & A17
 
12.  New Construction inventory up. – 786 from 750 last month.  Last year at this time there were 765 new homes for sale.  Record high 09/06 at 1890!  Record low  06/13 at 494 but it has surged up since then.  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
 
13.  Resale inventory is up. – 1274 from 1154 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1613 resale homes for sale!!!.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Good News for Builders!  Lack of inventory is forcing more new construction activity.  Chart A21
 
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 2.0 from 2.1 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  This sets a new record low – 5/16 at 2.0!  Chart A26.
 
18.  Final Sales Discount is up.  From the last asking price to final sales price, .4% from .3% last month.  Record low – 04/16 .3%.  Last year at this time it was .8%.  Chart 43
 
19.  Future Business Forecast is above 100%.  A54.  112%  – so closings next month will be above this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 104%.
 
 
MAY 2016 Inside Scoop – Canyon County
 
1.  Sales are up 6% from last month.  Comparing this month to the same month last year there is a 13% increase.  Chart C3
 
2.  Pending sales are up 6% from last month.  UP 29% from this same month last year.  Chart C47, C48, & C49.

 

6.  Year to Date Sales Units up for 2016.  14% cumulative Year to date.  Year to date dollar volume is 28% higher.  Chart C4.  This will be the year for big price increases in Canyon County as more and more buyers are headed west out of Ada to find affordable housing.

8,9,10.  Not calculated.

11.  Inventory is up 1% from last month;  and 29% lower than last year at this time.  Here come higher prices!  Charts C16 & C17

12.  New Construction inventory is down. 231 from 263 last month.  Last year at this time there were 321 new homes for sale.  Record high of 865 in March 2007.  Record Low 9/11 at 145.   Chart C19

13.  Resale inventory is up – 546 from 506 last month.  All time high was 2149 in July of 2008.   Last year at this time there were 725 resale homes for sale.  No wonder prices are jumping higher!  Watch this!!! 12/05 was the low point in resale inventory at 499.  01/16 new record low at 474!  Now 02/16 sets another NEW RECORD LOW at 451!!! Chart A21

14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 1.9 from 2.0 last month.  The all time record high was February 2009 of 23.5. This is a new all time RECORD LOW!  05/16 1.9.  Previous Record Low 04/16 at 2.0.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales. – no averaging of sales.  Chart C26

 

19.  Future Business Forecast is above 100%.  C54.  At 109% this means closed sales will be up next month from this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 99%.
 
 
 
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