May 2017 Real Estate Update – Ada County Idaho

9 06 2017
1.  Sales are UP 21% from last month, 2% down from this same month last year.  Chart A3 
2.  Pending sales are UP 7% from last month, down 1% from a year ago. – humm  Resale Pendings DOWN 12% from a year ago.  All of that slack is being made up for in New Construction. Chart A47, A48, & A49.
3.  The dollar volume was Up 25% from last month and 7% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5  
4.  Year to date sales units down 2% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 5% higher this year.  More price increases are ahead for 2017.  Chart A6.  
6.  Resale Median UP this month – $247,500.  This is a 4% change from last month; and a 8% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.
7.  Resale Affordability UNCHANGED now 22%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 18% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 29%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 13%.  Interest Rates continue at record lows but have gone from 3.47% to 4.20% just since the election. .now in May falling back to 4.01% .Charts A39, A40, and A41.
8.  Inventory is up 6% from last month and 12% lower than last year at this time.  This is a very significant number.  Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more.  Charts A16 & A17
9.  New Construction inventory down. – 756 from 785  last month.  Last year at this time there were 785 new homes for sale.  Record high 09/06 at 1890!  Record low  06/13 at 494 but it has surged up since then.  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
10.  Resale inventory is up. – 1052 from 920 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1274 resale homes for sale!!!.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   January 2017 is the NEW LOW Point in resale inventory at 555.  This is at least a 17 Year Low!  Good News for Builders!  Lack of inventory is forcing more new construction activity.  Chart A21
11.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is Down.  This month’s 1.8 from 2.0 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  NEW Record low – 05/17 at 1.8!  Chart A26.
12.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    This month’s 1.9 from 2.0 last month.  This is a critical benchmark number.  Last year at this time it was 2.1.  Chart A28
14.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is Down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 1.4 from 1.5 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 1.6 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
15.  Final Sales Discount is down.  From the last asking price to final sales price,  0.2% from 0.5% last month.  Record low – 03/17 0.3%.  Last year at this time it was 0.4%.  Chart 43