Real Estate Market Update

27 09 2017
AUGUST 2017 Inside Scoop – Ada County
If you like to keep score 13 vs. 3 :o)
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in in Bold
 
1.  Sales are UP 6% from last month, 13% UP from this same month last year.  Chart A3 
 
2.  Pending sales are down 4% from last month, UP 12% from a year ago. Chart A47, A48, & A49.
 
3.  The dollar volume was UP 8% from last month and 23% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5  
 
4.  Year to date sales units UP 1% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 10% higher this year.  More price increases are ahead for 2017. . . .  perhaps a 6-7% increase in median resale for 2017 over 2016.  Chart A6.  
 
5.  New Construction Median price UP 6% this month – and an 8% Increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9
 
6.  Resale Median UP  2% this month – and a 10% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.
 
7.  Resale Affordability Unchanged now 23%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 18% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 29%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 13%.  Interest Rates continue at record lows but have gone from 3.47% to 4.20% just since the election. .now in May falling back to 4.01%, June 3.9% .Charts A39, A40, and A41.
 
8.  Inventory is down 1% from last month and 12% lower than last year at this time.  This is a very significant number.  Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more.  Charts A16 & A17
 
9.  New Construction inventory Down– 711 from 724 last month.  Last year at this time there were 749 new homes for sale.  Record high 09/06 at 1890!  Record low  06/13 at 494 but it has surged up since then.  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
 
10.  Resale inventory is Down. – 1226 from 1228 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1440 resale homes for sale!!!.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   January 2017 is the NEW LOW Point in resale inventory at 555.  This is at least a 17 Year Low!  Good News for Builders!  Lack of inventory is forcing more new construction activity.  Chart A21
 
11.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is Down.  This month’s 1.7 from 1.8 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  NEW Record low – 06/17 at 1.6!  Chart A26.
 
12.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is unchanged.  Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    This month’s 1.7 from 1.7 last month.  This is a critical benchmark number.  Last year at this time it was 2.0.  Chart A28
 
13.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.1 from 2.9 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time there was a 3.7 month inventory supply.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A30
14.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is unchanged.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 1.4 from 1.4 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 1.7 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
 
15.  Final Sales Discount is unchanged.  From the last asking price to final sales price,  0.3% from 0.3% last month.  Record low – 05/17 0.2%.  Last year at this time it was 0.7%.  Chart 43
 
16.  Future Business Forecast is below 100%.  A54.  93%  – so closings next month will be below this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 94%.
 
 
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