ADA County Real Estate News

17 03 2015
FEBRUARY 2015 Inside Scoop – Ada County
If you like to keep score 9 vs. 10 :o(
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in in Bold
 
1.  Sales are UP 22% from last month, 23% up from this same month last year.  Wow! Chart A3
 
2.  Pending sales are UP 21% from last month, up 13% from a year ago. This is strong!  Chart A47, A48, & A49.
 
3.  Distressed sales were down this month.  Short Sales were 3% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 5%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 8% of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%.  
 
5.  The dollar volume was UP 22% from last month and 37% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5 
 
6.  Year to date sales units up 12% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 22% higher this year.  At the class on 2.18 didn’t we all say that prices in 2015 would rise at a greater rate than 2014!  Chart A6.  
9.  Resale Median UP this month – $196,750.  This is up 2% from last month; and a 16% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.
 
11.  Inventory is up 2% from last month and 6% lower than last year at this time.  Watch this, if it stays below last year’s levels price increases will heat up again.  Well they already have!  Charts A16 & A17
 
12.  New Construction inventory down. – 725 from 793 last month.  Last year at this time there were 743 new homes for sale.  So the inventory increase is on the resale side.  New Construction inventory has dropped for 63 of the last 101 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006.  Record low  0613 at 494 but it has surged up since then – Builders Beware!  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
 
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 3.8 from 4.6 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .Record low 05/13 at 2.3!  Chart A26.
 
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.4 from 2.8 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 4.3 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
 
19.  Future Business Forecast is above 100%.  A54.  135%  – so closings next month will be above this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 122%.
 
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ADA Country Real Estate News

11 02 2015
  JANUARY 2015 Inside Scoop – Ada County
If you like to keep score 11 vs. 8 :o)
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in in Bold
 
 
2.  Pending sales are UP 22% from last month, up 6% from a year ago. Chart A47, A48, & A49.
 
4.  Short Sales closing success % up – 19% this month.  12/10 high of 22%.  Record Low 11/14 at 9%.  A53.
 
5.  The dollar volume was down 31% from last month and 9% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5 
 
6.  Year to date sales units up 3% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 9% higher this year.  Chart A6.  
7.  Median Price up for a home sold this month  – $222,000.  This is 2% up from last month; and a 6% increase from this same month last year!    Chart A10
 
10.  Resale Affordability unchanged from last month- now 15%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.   Charts A39, A40, and A41.
 
11.  Inventory is down 0% from last month and 7% lower than last year at this time.  Watch this, if it stays below last year’s levels price increases will heat up again.  Charts A16 & A17
 
12.  New Construction inventory down. – 793 from 809 last month.  Last year at this time there were 783 new homes for sale.  So the inventory decrease is on the resale side.  New Construction inventory has dropped for 62 of the last 100 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006.  Record low  0613 at 494 but it has surged up since then – Builders Beware!  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is unchanged.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 7.0 from 7.0 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time there was a 6.6 month inventory supplySeptember 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A30
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 2.8 from 2.5 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.4 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
 
18.  Final Sales Discount is down.  From the last asking price to final sales price, 1.4% from 1.6% last month.  Record low – 06/13 .6%.  Last year at this time it was 1.3%.  Chart 43
 
19.  Future Business Forecast is above 100%.  A54.  134%  – so closings next month will be above this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 131%.
 
 




ADA County Real Estate News

8 10 2014
SEPTEMBER 2014 Inside Scoop – Ada County
If you like to keep score 6 vs.13 :o(
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in in Bold
 
 
2.  Pending sales are up 3% from last month, down 1% from a year ago. Chart A47, A48, & A49.  This is good news!
 
6.  Year to date sales units down – 3% fewer units than a year ago Chart A4.  It had to happen with the lower levels of pendings month after month.  The year to date dollar volume is 2% higher this year.  That spread is tightening indicating a slow down from the big price increases of 2012 and 2013.  Chart A6.  
7.  Median Price down for a home sold this month  – $204,900.  This is 6% down from last month; and a 5% increase from this same month last year!   Chart A10
 
10.  Resale Affordability up from last month- now 15%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.   Charts A39, A40, and A41.
 
11.  Inventory is down 3% from last month and 12% higher than last year at this time.  While the inventory is still relatively low, the increase will effectively “slow” the rapid rise in prices.  Charts A16 & A17
 
12.  New Construction inventory up. – 870 from 818 last month.  Last year at this time there were 657 new homes for sale.  New Construction inventory has dropped for 59 of the last 96 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006.  Record low  0613 at 494 but it has surged up since then – Builders Beware!  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
 
13.  Resale inventory is down. – 2024 form 2172 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1931 resale homes for sale.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Some pent up demand being released here as more owners finally have a bit of equity and can make a move.  Chart A21
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.5 from 3.3 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.2 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
 
18.  Final Sales Discount is down.  From the last asking price to final sales price, 1.5% from 1.7% last month.  Record low – 06/13 .6%.  Last year at this time it was 1.6%.  Chart 43
 
19.  Future Business Forecast is above 100%.  A54.  103%  – so closings next month will be above this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 82%.  So there was a surge of new escrows opened in September.  Good News!!!
 
 




ADA County Real Estate News

11 08 2014
 JULY 2014 Inside Scoop – Ada County
If you like to keep score 5 vs.14 :o(
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in Bold
 
1.  Sales are up 2% from last month, 6% down from this same month last year.  Chart A3 

3.  Distressed sales were down this month.  Short Sales were 1% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 4%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 6% (with rounding)  of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%.  Chart A42
 
6.  Year to date sales units down – 3% fewer units than a year ago Chart A4.  It had to happen with the lower levels of pendings month after month.  The year to date dollar volume is 3% higher this year.  That spread is tightening indicating a slow down from the big price increases of 2012 and 2013.  Chart A6.  
7.  Median Price down for a home sold this month  – $212,592.  This is 2% down from last month; and a 3% increase from this same month last year!   Chart A10
 
8.  New Construction Median price down this month – $309,283.  This is down 3% from last month; and a 16% increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9
 
9.  Resale Median down this month – $195,000.  This is down 2% from last month; and a 3% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.
 
10.  Resale Affordability improved from last month- now 15%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.   Charts A39, A40, and A41.
 
12.  New Construction inventory up. – 782 from 746 last month.  Last year at this time there were 541 new homes for sale.  New Construction inventory has dropped for 59 of the last 94 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006.  Record low  0613 at 494 but it has surged up since then – Builders Beware!  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County!
 
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is up.  This month’s 3.5 from 3.4 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .Record low 05/13 at 2.3!  Chart A26.
 
16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 4.9 from 5.1 from last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time it was 3.3.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A30
 
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.2 from 3.1 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 2.6 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 




ADA County Real Estate News

11 06 2014
 
  MAY 2014 Inside Scoop – Ada County
If you like to keep score 10 vs.9 :o)
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in inBold
 
1.  Sales are up 20% from last month, BUT 3% down from this same month last year.  Chart A3  This is concerning . . . 
 
3.  Distressed sales were down this month.  Short Sales were 3% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 4%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 6% (with rounding) of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%.  Chart A42
 
5.  The dollar volume was up 25% from last month and 2% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5 
 
6.  Year to date sales units down – 1% fewer units than a year ago Chart A4.  It had to happen with the lower levels of pendings month after month.  The year to date dollar volume is 6% higher this year.  That spread is tightening indicating a slow down from the big price increases of 2012 and 2013.  Chart A6.  
7.  Median Price up for a home sold this month  – $209,200.  This is 0% up from last month; and a 7% increase from this same month last year!   Chart A10
 
8.  New Construction Median price down this month – $306,741.  This is down 0% from last month; and a 13% increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9
 
9.  Resale Median up this month – $195,000.  This is up 3% from last month; and a 8% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.
 
10.  Resale Affordability down from last month- now 16%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.   Charts A39, A40, and A41.
 
12.  New Construction inventory up. – 744 from 710 last month.  Last year at this time there were 520 new homes for sale.  New Construction inventory has dropped for 59 of the last 92 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006.  Record low  0613 at 494 but it has surged up since then – Builders Beware!  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A
 
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 3.3 from 3.6 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .Record low 05/13 at 2.3!  Chart A26.
 
15.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    This month’s 3.6 from 3.9 last month.  This is a critical benchmark number.
 
16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 6.2 from 6.5 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time it was 3.4.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A30
 
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.1 from 3.3 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 2.2 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
 
18.  Final Sales Discount is unchanged.  From the last asking price to final sales price, .6% from .6% last month.  Record low – 06/13 .6%.  Last year at this time it was .8%.  Chart 43
 




IS THE REAL ESTATE MARKET SLOWING?

13 09 2013

Recently I got several calls from a conscientious reporter at the Idaho Statesman.  He basically wanted an answer to this question – “What is happening right now in the Treasure Valley Real Estate Market?  Is it slowing?”

The short answer is “Yes.”  At this time of the year there is always a seasonal slowdown from the peak sales months of May, June, July, and August.  for a more complete analysis you have to look deeper into the numbers.  I will focus on Ada County.

1.  During the last 15 years, August sales have increased 8 times over July – 7 times there has been a decline.  But the 8% decline in 2013 marks a reversal from the 4 prior years which showed increases of 2%, 15%, 6%, and 12%.  Humm. . . that at least raises a note of concern.

2.  Interest rates have gone up since May almost 1%.  This has caused a bit of a “compression” in sales and accounts for the huge closing month in July.  It is only natural for buyers to get off the fence and try and get the deals closed when rates are increasing.  Comparing closed sales this year to the same month last year the numbers are quite revealing:  January -6%, February +4%, March +8%, April +9%, May +35%, June +19%, July +40%, August +15%.  The rise in interest rates has to be considered when you study those numbers.  Again my thought is “Humm. . . .”

3.  Checking Cumulative sales YtoD you can see the July push.  January started 6% lower than 2012, then by February sales were still 1% lower.  After that it was positive: March 3%, April 5%, May 12%, June 13%, July 18% and August 17% higher in 2013 than 2012.  That too, while still VERY strong, may signal a bit of slowing. . .

4.  What about pricing?  The Median resale price for a home in Ada County was virtually unchanged in August from July.  It actually went up by $100 from $189,900 to $190,000.  Again the “Cumulative” Median pricing for 2013 compared to 2012 gives a more accurate picture.  The year started strong with a 10% gain in January, February fell back to 6%, March moved up to 8%, April 10%, May 12%, June 15%, July 16% and August 17%.  No signs of a price slowdown at all!  In fact this puts the market back in equilibrium with a constant 3.7% appreciation using a base year of 2000 pricing.  The “bubble” of 2005-2008 is gone and so is the “depression” of 2010-2012.  In the price free fall 2009 just happened to catch the normal Median line on the way down!

5.   Inventory – With the rising prices more homeowners are finally able to sell.  There are more homes on the market now than there were over the past two years at his time.  This will slow the intense pressure on prices to skyrocket and help to stabilize growth at a more sustainable pace.  However make no mistake about it – there is still a housing shortage in Ada County.  The 2462 homes for sale at the end of August 2013 is nowhere near the 5125 in 2007 peak.

6.  The last data point that I want to check is new business written.  Here a case can certainly be made for “market slowing.”  609 contract were written in August.  This is just a little ahead of the number written in August the preceding 4 years: 2009 – 573,   2010 – 505,   2011 – 511,   2012 – 593.  However when you look at April – July of this year the numbers were much stronger when you compare them to the past 4 years.  Just comparing 2012 April-July with 2013 there was an average gain of 22%.  August was only up 3%.

Conclusion:  Yes there is some evidence of a market “slowdown” however most of the signs are still very positive.





MARCH 2013 MARKET PERSPECTIVE FOR BOISE ID

5 04 2013

As I look at the March Ada County numbers I see a lot of positive:

1.  Sales are up 20% from last month, and 8% up from this same month last year.  Chart A3
 
2.  Pending sales are up 21% from last month, and are up 12% from a year ago. New Construction surge continues up 34% from a year ago, resale pendings are up 5%. Chart A47, A48, & A49.
 
3.  Distressed sales were down this month.  Short Sales were 11% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 8%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 19% of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%.  This is the “healthiest” month since 09/08 in terms of the greatest % of Equity Sales!    Chart A42
 
4.  Short Sales closing success % unchanged,  – 14% this month.  12/10 high of 22%.  Low 1/10 at 10%.  A53
 
5.  The dollar volume was up 30% from last month and 38% up from this same month last year in dollar volume of sales.  Chart A5
 
6.  Year to date sales UP – 3% more units than a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 27% higher this year.  “Higher prices!”  Chart A6.  
 
7.  Median Price Up for a home sold this month  – $186,900.  This is 3% UP from last month; and a 23% increase from this same month last year!   Chart A10
 
8.  New Construction Median price up this month – $253,070.  This is up 5% from last month; and a 25% increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9
 
9.  Resale Median UP this month – $173,500.  This is up 8% from last month; and a 26% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.  
 
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 3.2 from 3.7 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .  Record low may have been – 04/12 at 3.0!  You have to go back to 05/06 to find a lower supply at 2.9!  . .Chart A26.
 
15.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Keep an eye on chart A27, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    Chart A28 features a longer time period view of just the county wide average number.  This month’s 3.5 from 4.1 last month.
 
16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 4.8 from 6.1 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time it was 6.5.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A29 & A30
 
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.1 from 3.5 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.3 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A31 & A32
 
19.  Future Business Forecast is up above 100%.  A54.  132%  – so closings next month should be up considerably from this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 130%.

For more information contact Jere Webb at 208.861.2222.  Or by email at jw@jerewebb.com

http://www.jerewebb.com





FEBRUARY 2013 MARKET PERSPECTIVE FOR BOISE ID

6 03 2013

As I look at the February Ada County numbers I see a lot of positive:

  1. Healthiest market in terms of Equity Inventory and Equity Sales since September 2008 except for a brief burst in August & September of 2012.
  2. Best February sales month in terms of units closed in 6 years – have to go back to 2007 to find a higher February.
  3. Sales $ volume up 20% over a year ago, unit volume up 4% – can you say “higher prices!”
  4. Median resale equity pricing so far this year is 5% higher than the equity median pricing for 2012.
  5. Looking at the 2 month rolling average for supply this February tops out lower than recent years so another sign that the market is moving in the right direction – 4.1 months of supply vs. 4.6 last year.  New construction is 6.1 vs. 7.9 last year.  Resale is 3.5 vs. 4.0 last year.

One cautionary note that I see buried deep in the numbers is this:  the “future business forecast number” is not as strong at this point as it has been in the past.

  • 2010 – 145%
  • 2011 – 133%
  • 2012 – 143%
  • 2013 – 125%

This is a calculation that predicts closing levels in the next 30-60 days based upon new business written, pending levels, etc.

For more information contact Jere Webb at 208.861.2222.  Or by email at jw@jerewebb.com

http://www.jerewebb.com

 





HOW MUCH ARE PRICES DOWN?

6 04 2011

How much is your home in Ada County worth today compared to a year ago?

1.  Comparing the Median Sales price of a resale home in March 2011 to March 2010, the answer is a shocking 18% less.

2.  Looking at a bigger picture and comparing the Year to Date Medians  the answer is 20% less.

3.  Finally going out still further and comparing the last 6 month’s Median the answer is 16% less