Webb Real Estate News

9 08 2016
JULY 2016 Inside Scoop – Ada County
If you like to keep score 8 vs. 11 :o(
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in in Bold
  
6.  Year to date sales units up 13% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 19% higher this year.  Remember our 7/21 class “mid year price projection!”  So keep watching this spread – it is at 6% now.  Chart A6.  
10.  Resale Affordability UP (more Affordable)  from last month- now 16%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.  Interest Rates continue at record lows but Resale prices are surging! Charts A39, A40, and A41.
 
13.  Resale inventory is up. – 1495 from 1353 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1760 resale homes for sale!!!.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Good News for Builders!  Lack of inventory is forcing more new construction activity.  Chart A21
 
18.  Final Sales Discount is unchanged.  From the last asking price to final sales price, .5% from .5% last month.  Record low – 04/16 .3%.  Last year at this time it was 1.0%.  Chart 43
 
19.  Future Business Forecast is below 100%.  A54.  89%  – so closings next month will be below this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 90%.
 
 
JULY 2016 Inside Scoop – Canyon County
If you like to keep score 5 vs. 10 :o(
Positive News in in Bold
 
 6.  Year to Date Sales Units up for 2016.  13% cumulative Year to date.  Year to date dollar volume is 27% higher.  Chart C4.  This will be the year for big price increases in Canyon County as more and more buyers are headed west out of Ada to find affordable housing.

 

11.  Inventory is up 10% from last month;  and 17% lower than last year at this time.  Here come higher prices!  Charts C16 & C17

12.  New Construction inventory is up. 283 from 262 last month.  Last year at this time there were 340 new homes for sale.  Record high of 865 in March 2007.  Record Low 9/11 at 145.   Chart C19

13.  Resale inventory is up – 708 from 640 last month.  All time high was 2149 in July of 2008.   Last year at this time there were 850 resale homes for sale.  No wonder prices are jumping higher!  Watch this!!! 12/05 was the low point in resale inventory at 499.  02/16 sets another NEW RECORD LOW at 451!!! Chart A21

 Note:  Webb Chart Subscribers receive the full version each month.  To subscribe go to http://www.jerewebb.com
 




Testimonials – 9X, Webb Charts & Class “Know How to Use Market Statistics”

15 07 2016
 
“I look forward to reviewing Jere’s charts each month.  I strongly believe that you need good data to make good decisions and I rely on Jere’s charts as my primary data source so that I can be well informed with past and present market data numbers.  I also use this data to forecast future market trends for my clients and peers in the home building industry.  I appreciate Jere’s commitment and integrity to our industry.” 
Dave Yorgason, Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group
 
“I was one of Jere’s early chart subscribers (2003-2004?), and I have not missed a year since.  I have used his charts  thru the years with builders, buyers and sellers, and found them an invaluable tool! They keep me on top of the constantly changing market and help to establish me as an “expert” in my field with potential and existing clients.  Also, thanks you again for expanding the Canyon County pricing charts. I’m sure everyone appreciates it!  I know I do”
Al Busby Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group
 
“I have been attending Jere Webb’s real estate chart classes for years.  I have found that class to be the most useful real estate class I have ever taken.  When Jere introduced his 9 x valuation method, I immediately purchased it and have used it many times. It is extremely useful in helping sellers feel confident that they have a good handle on their own pricing strategy and on what is happening with similar homes.  Several times over the years, Jere has even conducted a 9x analysis on one of my listings (for a fee) and having his judgement and expertise is a huge bonus. Obviously, he knows the system better than anyone and he is able to get full capacity out of the analysis tool he created.  I strongly recommend Jere’s chart subscription and the 9x analysis tool. He is endlessly willing to explain how it works and to collaborate with other agents to provide the best information and service to the Treasure Valley real estate community.  We are fortunate to have Jere working among us as a friend and fellow real estate professional.”
 Todd McCauley  Century 21 Eagle Rock Properties
 
“I have attended Jere’s stats classes for two years now and don’t want to miss another one during my real estate career if I can keep from it.  Statistics aren’t naturally exciting, but Jere brings them to life and the class interaction is extremely informative and valuable.  I highly recommend these classes for any and all agents regardless of how long you’ve been in the business.”
Darrell Humphrey  Silvercreek Realty Group
 
“I have been a subscriber to the Webb Charts and attended Jere’s classes for over 10 years. I recommend attending the classes to keep up with the current charts  I find the charts both informative and very instructive. Informative because they confirm the suspicions I have regarding current market conditions. Instructive because they allow me to show buyers and sellers visually,a third party perspective to validate the information I am conveying. And, they save me a ton of time by not having to generate the information myself so I can focus on what I do best. Don’t leave home without them!”
Don McFarland Broker/Owner RE/MAX West
 
“Great information!  The numbers (historical) are so important to understanding future direction.  Jere explained the data mining and analysis so well it empowered me with true confidence heading into our 2015 market.  And it provided me with a better way to understand what the data means.  Thank you!”
Leslie Wright, Keller Williams

“I tried 9X on my own on another listing this evening and it worked great. I love the 9x and am so glad that I signed up. Great program and the tutoring is unparalleled. The charts class was tremendously beneficial. I will definitely not miss any in the future. The demonstrations that were given on application of the charts was extremely helpful. The value to our clients and the impression it makes is certainly worth the minor cost to be a part of your program. I have been in the building and real estate business since 1973 and this is definitely one of the best things I have been exposed to. The tools to identify niches for your builders and investors while allowing them to participate in the analysis are great. This service would have meant a lot to me had it been offered by my Realtors when I was building homes. I am definitely a fan. Thanks so much for going to the effort and sharing it with us all. I am already addicted.”
Reg Dobbs, Re/Max Executives

“Great Class!  Charts are very useful and I’m excited to use them as I present myself to clients as an “expert” in the market.”
David Nielsen, Silvercreek
 
I used the charts in a recent listing presentation.  My clients were amazed at how the market had changed.  It gave me leverage to present realistic expectations to my clients.  Loved it!”  
Faye Delbridge, Trust Realty
 
“I’ve been attending Jere’s presentations for 8+ years, he’s never let me down.  The focus is on data usable in today’s market for a buyer and seller.  An agent has to have this information in this volatile market!”  
Joe Rogan, Re/Max West
 
“If you want to really understand market statistics – Jere’s class puts them into perspective.”  
Charlene Bragg, Group One
 
“Very honest information, such attention to detail.”  
Wendy Northcutt, Wendy Works Realty
 
“Try being a carpenter without your tools!  You could show up in your shiny truck and talk a good talk but when the rubber meets the road, you are sunk!  As a professional for 19 years in the real estate industry, I could not tell my clients the facts without the help of Webb Charts.  You have to know the statistics!”  
Laurie Burchfield, Downs Realty
 
“Jere, as one of your original subscribers, I want to thank you for the Webb Charts. I tell all of my agents how important it is to subscribe to your charts, I don’t know how a Realtor can call themselves a professional if they don’t provide their clients with the most accurate and current information available and your Webb Charts does that. Keep up the great work.”  
Terry Torrence, Manager, Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group
 
“I’ve been a subscriber to the Webb Charts since October 2007 and find them very useful.  They have really come in handy during the past couple months because they give you the ability to go ahead and show the seller’s how the market is trending; i.e. the median prices of homes in this market are declining.  When they visually see this, they are more likely to price the home at a competitive price that will get it shown and sold in a reasonable period of time.  Since subscribing to The Webb Charts, I have investigated other charting services that focus on the Treasure Valley market. I have found they are much less complete, much older data (at least one month older information, making them recent history, not timely information), and they don’t graphically show the market trends to the degree Webb Charts do. There is “Doing just enough to get by” and “Doing it right”. The Webb charts do it right.  I sincerely believe that any professional agent should have this tool available at their fingertips.”  
Don McFarland, Broker/Owner, ReMax West
 
“Webb Charts are one of the best tools I have for analyzing and anticipating market trends.  Our agents are able to better facilitate pricing listings and our builder/developer clientele are always asking what is new on the Webb Charts.”  
Larry Laraway, Broker, Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group
 
“I wanted to thank you for the great class this morning.  From a market outlook, it’s nice to see that TitleOne is predicting similar stats for 2012.  I believe the first half of 2012 will be stronger simply because of the refinance market, however we agree we’re at the bottom and going to bump along.  Your affordability index chart is good information that I intend to share with our leadership team, just some good information to have in your hip pocket.  You have done a tremendous job providing valuable information and presenting in a fashion for “all” eyes.   I look forward to your class in July.”
Vicki White VP/Treasure Valley Manager TitleOne Corporation
 
“The class was fantastic.  I can say without hesitation, that trying to do residential real estate in SW Idaho without your charts at their fingertips is akin to tying to navigate rush hour traffic in Braille.  Ya can’t get there from here!!!”
Joe Rohner, IdahoJoe Realty
 
Jere Webb’s Charts are the best investment I make, because I’m investing in my knowledge.” 
Liz Alexander, John L. Scott
 
“Very informative and gives a realistic analysis of real estate in the Treasure Valley.  Without this info, a Realtor is at the mercy of the limited stats from Paragon and the media.”
Faye Delbridge, Trust Realty
 
“We work in a field that is never static, so it is key to have reliable date – shown in different ways – to give our clients.”
Louise Auchampach, Idaho Properties
 
“Jere puts the market into an understandable perspective.  This class should be mandatory for all real estate professionals, lenders and appraisers included.  We all leave this class with valuable and useful information.”
Joe Rogan, ReMax West
 
“Jere’s charts enable me to explain data that I have thought but can’t get someone who doesn’t know me to believe!”
Sherry Rogan, ReMax West
 
“This class puts to paper the sense I’ve had about the market.  It confirms the writing on the wall for me!”
Eric Bracht, Siolvercreek
 
“Great information!  Forces you to look at the facts.  Very interesting.  I will use this information to help my clients.”
Cindy Sawyers, Re/Max Capital City
 
“1st time in class – I feel it is important to stay up in such a fast changing market.  Jere provided the information I have been looking for to be a competitive Realtor.  Thank you!”
Ann Moffat, Eagle Rock Properties
 
“Love your class!”
Des Hughes, Silvercreek
 
“I really enjoyed your chart class.  For pragmatic knowledge to take to my clients, your class definitely delivered.  I never thought I would be riveted by a class on statistics, but I was!  The charts are precisely what I need to guide my buyers & sellers to make the best possible choices in this market.  I’m a fan now & I can’t wait for the next class to see how far the mighty ship has turned.”
Ann Sabala,  John L. Scott
 
“Great class.  I have used information from it with several clients already.  Thank you for this service.  It has really added professionalism to my real estate practice.  It is so much better than extrapolating from my personal experience and talking with other agents, and trying to guess what is true from news articles.”
Bryan Richter, Group One
 
“Great job, Jere…I am such a believer in using charts to help ourselves and our clients work through our shifting market.  Don’t we know it is shifting daily and important to stay on top of this?  I signed up with you about 5 months ago and just attended my first class.  Wow….I was pushed out of my comfort zone and came out “comfortable”.  I want to thank you for the time, talent and energy you are giving to your fellow Realtors(r).  You are greatly appreciated.”
Gail Hartnett , Keller Williams
 
2008-09 NAR Executive Committee, 2007 State President Idaho Assoc. of REALTORS(R), 2006 National President Women’s Council of REALTORS(R)“Jere Webb’s “Webb Charts” have been invaluable to me.  I am not a numbers person, myself.  So when I go for a listing interview, it gives me immeasurable confidence to have these statistics to back me up.  If I am speaking with someone else who doesn’t love numbers, my favorite feature is the introductory comment (the “Inside Scoop”) Jere provides.  He actually interprets all those figures so anyone can understand them!”
Rebecca Compton, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker
 
“For a reasonable investment Jere does the number crunching for those willing to educate themselves.  He even compiles charts and graphs that are very easy to understand and communicate/share with clients.  This assists agents to be true market experts.  With Webb Charts agents have the numbers to back up what they see and feel about the marketplace.  It also gives them a tool to combat wrong information that may be clouding client judgment (both buyers and sellers) when they give advice.   It is easy to tell a seller to lower their price when a property has not sold; but it feels better to show the client exactly why. Webb Charts make delivering complete market information easy and fun.  This is just what agents need.  I have attended Jere’s class and the only thing missing at this point is an additional hour which will allow him to cover the material more comprehensively and insert the few additional items that will bring the class to an even higher level of professionalism.  Jere’s quest to educate agents who in turn can educate their clients is spectacular.”
Shaun Tracy, Associate Broker, RE/MAX Capital City
 
“I have been a subscriber to Webb Charts for just over a year and have attended 3 of Jere’s training sessions. As the market has evolved, so has the content of Jere’s classes. We all are aware this market is anything but static. Ergo, the material has needed to expand to keep up with the challenges we face in this current, severe market. By being fully versed in the content of these charts, I am better able to explain the actual market conditions (unlike the hyped hysteria spewed by the mainstream media) to the public, so that they can make informed decisions. This material is an excellent tool has proven to be a real Godsend.  Realistically, we could easily spend 6 – 8 hours explaining all the information and recaps contained in the charts, . . . As the content expands and updates, so should training.”Don McFarland, Designated Broker, RE/MAX West
 
“Just a short note to let you know how much Joan and I enjoy your chart classes.  The information, data and presentation are first class.  I use your charts to help my clients all the time.  This information should be required for anybody looking to buy or sell a home.  In our market, this data and information is critical to making good decisions.  Please continue to provide this service to us as Realtors.”
Doug and Joan Johnston, Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group
 
“The information truly gives agents taking the class a pulse on what is happening to our area as well as updating us to the very present market. These charts are very informative in many ways. The detail breakdown of categories that are sectioned out make it very clear on each segment of the market and show us the many ways the market is heading and acting. You walk away presently informed with a tool to be used that can give clients insight to our market conditions and where they can look for the best deal if they are looking for that great buy.  This information helps us in a secondary way too.  We can take the information on our present market and compare it to other outside state markets and be able to compare and see how those markets will be affecting our market. This can help us understand where we need to be positioning our selves in our business as well as being ready for that out-of-state buyer or investor.“
Peggy Jordan, Group One
 
Jere, Thank you for holding classes on the Market Charts.  It has been very beneficial and valuable to me and my clients.  This has been a great professional tool when talking to Buyers and Sellers in educating them on the current market.  I appreciate all your work and efforts.  Please keep up the good work.”
Pat Waller, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker – Tomlinson Group
 
“Jere, your class is always very informative. The class and the charts make our specific data take on more relevance from the narrow perspective of the related property and its comps to the market at large and MLS Areas.  By using the total data approach, it assist in helping the clients, be they buyers or sellers; to be  able to see more clearly the realities of the current market trends.  Thereby, the client is able to make more well-informed and rational decisions–whether in the current volatile market or any market conditions.”
Bonnie & Kevin O’Hara, Realtors, Coldwell Banker
 
“Expanding Webb Charts class to 4 hours would be very beneficial for us “practicing” agents.”
Rick Thurber, Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group
 
“Jere-Your class was fantastic!  Loaded with great insight about our ever-changing market.  It has helped me in my dealings with prospects I have met, and in discussing the state of the market with my current clients.  Thank you!”
Pohley Richey, Realtor, Homeland Realty
 
“As a former certified instructor I see that many agents enter the business of selling real estate but do not take the job seriously when it comes to being able to report market numbers to their clients.  Part of this failure is due to the overwhelming time it takes to compile statistics in a vibrant and easily communicable way that can be relayed in layman terms.  It is also the fact that many people simply do not possess the math skills to figure out how to compile this information.  This class is informative and educational.  Jere is an engaging speaker and does well to keep the class interactive and interesting.”
Tami McHugh, CPA, Broker/Owner, Heritage Real Estate
 
“Jere Webb’s charts are awesome!  They have helped my business tremendously.”
Jeff Christianson, Associate Broker, Re/Max Capital City
 
“I have taken many Real Estate classes but only a few of those classes have directly assisted me in improving my ability to educate my clients on current housing conditions. The material that Mr. Webb provides in his class is very useful and has enabled me to understand the dynamics and trends of the real estate market in both Ada and Canyon County which is extremely important to my business. Because of the material covered in His class, I am better able to represent my clients. In fact, I would argue that his class is critical to my success. Though, getting through all the material in three hours proved challenging, all the time spent in Mr. Webb’s Charting class was well worth it.”
Curtis Thaden, Mountain Realty
 
“In the current market it is vital to have the FACTS!  Jere Webb’s charts provide those facts and lend credibility to a listing presentation.  To present yourself as a professional in touch with the market you need to take Jere’s class and subscribe to receive his monthly charts.”
Chet Pipkin, Broker, Downs Realty
 
“I have always been a proponent of knowing your stats, both personally and market wise. Knowing what the market is doing statistically not only helps us know the trends of our business, but gives us confidence and helps us be knowledgeable and professional. In the end what we may ‘feel’ about how the market is doing may have little bearing in what it is actually doing. Statistics and numbers are the true indicators of market activity and trends. Webb Charts is a superior source of vital market statistics. Jere does all the legwork and allows us to use his efforts to maximize our effectiveness.”
Mike Gamblin, Broker/Owner, Mike Gamblin Real Estate
 
“No matter what industry you’re in, data is king. In real estate if you don’t know what the market is doing, how much inventory there is, how many are selling and have a format that is easy to present, you’re not going to be successful.  If you’re not using Webb Charts it would be like the Broncos trying to win a football game without their play Book.”
Terry Torrence – Broker/Manager, Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group
 
“Webb Charts have changed my business!  It’s great to have an accurate, reliable source of information that allows me to educate myself, my clients, and the public on what’s really going on in the real estate world.  Plus they are a great tool to “fight” the media’s dramatic and inaccurate real estate reporting.  They are an absolute must-have!”
Burma Naylor, Silvercreek Realty Group
 
“I am in my second year subscribing to Webb Charts and they have become a very important part of my business.  I rely on Jere’s statistics to prepare my reporting about the market to developers and builders.  I also incorporate some of Jere’s statistics into my farming plans and sphere mailings.”
Janeen Sanchez, Realtor, Coldwell Banker
 
“I have heard from many that there is data that is ‘free’ from their title companies & that we can get the information for ourselves off the MLS system.  I have a Marketing degree with a statistics emphasis and a strong understanding of Excel so I could create these reports myself.  However, obtaining accurate historical information would be difficult if not impossible (Webb Charts have several years of data).  And an even bigger question is, ‘would it be worth my time to create these reports?’  I know that once the original templates & macros are written it would still require some time & commitment to consistently get the data.  Also, when there is questionable data would I recognize it and follow-up to correct it like Jere does?  I question the wisdom in recreating the wheel, when I can subscribe to the Webb Charts.”
Gail Nussbaum, Realtor, Coldwell Banker
 
The Webb Charts have been a great asset in my business over the last five years.  They paint a clear picture for my clients which helps give me an edge when competing for business.  Without the charts, it would be like shooting from the hip and/or guessing, which is not professional.”
Michael Simis, Realtor, Coldwell Banker

“It was a great class, very informative as always.  I really like having my thumb on the pulse of the market, gives me extra confidence in talking with clients and co-workers,  I have found Jere’s Webb Charts to be invaluable in the operation of my business.  I use them with both Buyers and Sellers to assist them in understanding our local market and how it affects them personally.  We are constantly bombarded by the media with information that may not pertain to our market; the Webb Charts provide the ammo necessary to combat that.  The information is concise, current and in a format that is easy to present.”
Bill Re, Silvercreek
 
I have had the charts less than a week and I find myself sharing information from them constantly.  Keep up the good work!”
Ron Minegar, Broker/Owner Ron Minegar Real Estate




Testimonials – 9X, Webb Charts & Class “Know How to Use Market Statistics”

19 02 2015

“Great information!  The numbers (historical) are so important to understanding future direction.  Jere explained the data mining and analysis so well it empowered me with true confidence heading into our 2015 market.  And it provided me with a better way to understand what the data means.  Thank you!”  Leslie Wright, Keller Williams

“I tried 9X on my own on another listing this evening and it worked great. I love the 9x and am so glad that I signed up. Great program and the tutoring is unparalleled. The charts class was tremendously beneficial. I will definitely not miss any in the future. The demonstrations that were given on application of the charts was extremely helpful. The value to our clients and the impression it makes is certainly worth the minor cost to be a part of your program. I have been in the building and real estate business since 1973 and this is definitely one of the best things I have been exposed to. The tools to identify niches for your builders and investors while allowing them to participate in the analysis are great. This service would have meant a lot to me had it been offered by my Realtors when I was building homes. I am definitely a fan. Thanks so much for going to the effort and sharing it with us all. I am already addicted.”  Reg Dobbs, Re/Max Executives

“Great Class!  Charts are very useful and I’m excited to use them as I present myself to clients as an “expert” in the market.”  David Nielsen, Silvercreek
 
I used the charts in a recent listing presentation.  My clients were amazed at how the market had changed.  It gave me leverage to present realistic expectations to my clients.  Loved it!”  Faye Delbridge, Trust Realty
 
“I’ve been attending Jere’s presentations for 8+ years, he’s never let me down.  The focus is on data usable in today’s market for a buyer and seller.  An agent has to have this information in this volatile market!”  Joe Rogan, Re/Max West
 
“If you want to really understand market statistics – Jere’s class puts them into perspective.”  Charlene Bragg, Group One
 
“Very honest information, such attention to detail.”  Wendy Northcutt, Wendy Works Realty
“Try being a carpenter without your tools!  You could show up in your shiny truck and talk a good talk but when the rubber meets the road, you are sunk!  As a professional for 19 years in the real estate industry, I could not tell my clients the facts without the help of Webb Charts.  You have to know the statistics!”  Laurie Burchfield, Downs Realty
 
“Jere, as one of your original subscribers, I want to thank you for the Webb Charts. I tell all of my agents how important it is to subscribe to your charts, I don’t know how a Realtor can call themselves a professional if they don’t provide their clients with the most accurate and current information available and your Webb Charts does that. Keep up the great work.”  Terry Torrence, Manager, Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group
 
“I’ve been a subscriber to the Webb Charts since October 2007 and find them very useful.  They have really come in handy during the past couple months because they give you the ability to go ahead and show the seller’s how the market is trending; i.e. the median prices of homes in this market are declining.  When they visually see this, they are more likely to price the home at a competitive price that will get it shown and sold in a reasonable period of time.  Since subscribing to The Webb Charts, I have investigated other charting services that focus on the Treasure Valley market. I have found they are much less complete, much older data (at least one month older information, making them recent history, not timely information), and they don’t graphically show the market trends to the degree Webb Charts do. There is “Doing just enough to get by” and “Doing it right”. The Webb charts do it right.  I sincerely believe that any professional agent should have this tool available at their fingertips.”  Don McFarland, Broker/Owner, ReMax West
 
“Webb Charts are one of the best tools I have for analyzing and anticipating market trends.  Our agents are able to better facilitate pricing listings and our builder/developer clientele are always asking what is new on the Webb Charts.”  Larry Laraway, Broker, Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group

“I wanted to thank you for the great class this morning.  From a market outlook, it’s nice to see that TitleOne is predicting similar stats for 2012.  I believe the first half of 2012 will be stronger simply because of the refinance market, however we agree we’re at the bottom and going to bump along.  Your affordability index chart is good information that I intend to share with our leadership team, just some good information to have in your hip pocket.  You have done a tremendous job providing valuable information and presenting in a fashion for “all” eyes.   I look forward to your class in July.”  Vicki White VP/Treasure Valley Manager TitleOne Corporation

“The class was fantastic.  I can say without hesitation, that trying to do residential real estate in SW Idaho without your charts at their fingertips is akin to tying to navigate rush hour traffic in Braille.  Ya can’t get there from here!!!”   Joe Rohner, IdahoJoe Realty

“Jere Webb’s Charts are the best investment I make, because I’m investing in my knowledge.”  Liz Alexander, John L. Scott

“Very informative and gives a realistic analysis of real estate in the Treasure Valley.  Without this info, a Realtor is at the mercy of the limited stats from Paragon and the media.”  Faye Delbridge, Trust Realty

“We work in a field that is never static, so it is key to have reliable date – shown in different ways – to give our clients.”  Louise Auchampach, Idaho Properties

“Jere puts the market into an understandable perspective.  This class should be mandatory for all real estate professionals, lenders and appraisers included.  We all leave this class with valuable and useful information.”  Joe Rogan, ReMax West

“Jere’s charts enable me to explain data that I have thought but can’t get someone who doesn’t know me to believe!”  Sherry Rogan, ReMax West

“This class puts to paper the sense I’ve had about the market.  It confirms the writing on the wall for me!”  Eric Bracht, Siolvercreek

“Great information!  Forces you to look at the facts.  Very interesting.  I will use this information to help my clients.”  Cindy Sawyers, Re/Max Capital City

“1st time in class – I feel it is important to stay up in such a fast changing market.  Jere provided the information I have been looking for to be a competitive Realtor.  Thank you!”  Ann Moffat, Eagle Rock Properties

“Love your class!”  Des Hughes, Silvercreek

“I really enjoyed your chart class.  For pragmatic knowledge to take to my clients, your class definitely delivered.  I never thought I would be riveted by a class on statistics, but I was!  The charts are precisely what I need to guide my buyers & sellers to make the best possible choices in this market.  I’m a fan now & I can’t wait for the next class to see how far the mighty ship has turned.”  Ann Sabala,  John L. Scott

“Great class.  I have used information from it with several clients already.  Thank you for this service.  It has really added professionalism to my real estate practice.  It is so much better than extrapolating from my personal experience and talking with other agents, and trying to guess what is true from news articles.”  Bryan Richter, Group One

“Great job, Jere…I am such a believer in using charts to help ourselves and our clients work through our shifting market.  Don’t we know it is shifting daily and important to stay on top of this?  I signed up with you about 5 months ago and just attended my first class.  Wow….I was pushed out of my comfort zone and came out “comfortable”.  I want to thank you for the time, talent and energy you are giving to your fellow Realtors(r).  You are greatly appreciated.”  Gail Hartnett , Keller Williams 2008-09 NAR Executive Committee, 2007 State President Idaho Assoc. of REALTORS(R), 2006 National President Women’s Council of REALTORS(R)

“Jere Webb’s “Webb Charts” have been invaluable to me.  I am not a numbers person, myself.  So when I go for a listing interview, it gives me immeasurable confidence to have these statistics to back me up.  If I am speaking with someone else who doesn’t love numbers, my favorite feature is the introductory comment (the “Inside Scoop”) Jere provides.  He actually interprets all those figures so anyone can understand them!”   Rebecca Compton, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker

“For a reasonable investment Jere does the number crunching for those willing to educate themselves.  He even compiles charts and graphs that are very easy to understand and communicate/share with clients.  This assists agents to be true market experts.  With Webb Charts agents have the numbers to back up what they see and feel about the marketplace.  It also gives them a tool to combat wrong information that may be clouding client judgment (both buyers and sellers) when they give advice.   It is easy to tell a seller to lower their price when a property has not sold; but it feels better to show the client exactly why. Webb Charts make delivering complete market information easy and fun.  This is just what agents need.  I have attended Jere’s class and the only thing missing at this point is an additional hour which will allow him to cover the material more comprehensively and insert the few additional items that will bring the class to an even higher level of professionalism.  Jere’s quest to educate agents who in turn can educate their clients is spectacular.”  Shaun Tracy, Associate Broker, RE/MAX Capital City

“I have been a subscriber to Webb Charts for just over a year and have attended 3 of Jere’s training sessions. As the market has evolved, so has the content of Jere’s classes. We all are aware this market is anything but static. Ergo, the material has needed to expand to keep up with the challenges we face in this current, severe market. By being fully versed in the content of these charts, I am better able to explain the actual market conditions (unlike the hyped hysteria spewed by the mainstream media) to the public, so that they can make informed decisions. This material is an excellent tool has proven to be a real Godsend.  Realistically, we could easily spend 6 – 8 hours explaining all the information and recaps contained in the charts, . . . As the content expands and updates, so should training.”  Don McFarland, Designated Broker, RE/MAX West

“Just a short note to let you know how much Joan and I enjoy your chart classes.  The information, data and presentation are first class.  I use your charts to help my clients all the time.  This information should be required for anybody looking to buy or sell a home.  In our market, this data and information is critical to making good decisions.  Please continue to provide this service to us as Realtors.”  Doug and Joan Johnston, Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group

“The information truly gives agents taking the class a pulse on what is happening to our area as well as updating us to the very present market. These charts are very informative in many ways. The detail breakdown of categories that are sectioned out make it very clear on each segment of the market and show us the many ways the market is heading and acting. You walk away presently informed with a tool to be used that can give clients insight to our market conditions and where they can look for the best deal if they are looking for that great buy.  This information helps us in a secondary way too.  We can take the information on our present market and compare it to other outside state markets and be able to compare and see how those markets will be affecting our market. This can help us understand where we need to be positioning our selves in our business as well as being ready for that out-of-state buyer or investor.“  Peggy Jordan, Group One

“Jere, Thank you for holding classes on the Market Charts.  It has been very beneficial and valuable to me and my clients.  This has been a great professional tool when talking to Buyers and Sellers in educating them on the current market.  I appreciate all your work and efforts.  Please keep up the good work.”  Pat Waller, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker – Tomlinson Group

“Jere, your class is always very informative. The class and the charts make our specific data take on more relevance from the narrow perspective of the related property and its comps to the market at large and MLS Areas.  By using the total data approach, it assist in helping the clients, be they buyers or sellers; to be  able to see more clearly the realities of the current market trends.  Thereby, the client is able to make more well-informed and rational decisions–whether in the current volatile market or any market conditions.”  Bonnie & Kevin O’Hara, Realtors, Coldwell Banker

“Expanding Webb Charts class to 4 hours would be very beneficial for us “practicing” agents.”  Rick Thurber, Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group

“Jere-Your class was fantastic!  Loaded with great insight about our ever-changing market.  It has helped me in my dealings with prospects I have met, and in discussing the state of the market with my current clients.  Thank you!”  Pohley Richey, Realtor, Homeland Realty

“As a former certified instructor I see that many agents enter the business of selling real estate but do not take the job seriously when it comes to being able to report market numbers to their clients.  Part of this failure is due to the overwhelming time it takes to compile statistics in a vibrant and easily communicable way that can be relayed in layman terms.  It is also the fact that many people simply do not possess the math skills to figure out how to compile this information.  This class is informative and educational.  Jere is an engaging speaker and does well to keep the class interactive and interesting.”  Tami McHugh, CPA, Broker/Owner, Heritage Real Estate

“Jere Webb’s charts are awesome!  They have helped my business tremendously.”   Jeff Christianson, Associate Broker, Re/Max Capital City

“I have taken many Real Estate classes but only a few of those classes have directly assisted me in improving my ability to educate my clients on current housing conditions. The material that Mr. Webb provides in his class is very useful and has enabled me to understand the dynamics and trends of the real estate market in both Ada and Canyon County which is extremely important to my business. Because of the material covered in His class, I am better able to represent my clients. In fact, I would argue that his class is critical to my success. Though, getting through all the material in three hours proved challenging, all the time spent in Mr. Webb’s Charting class was well worth it.”  Curtis Thaden, Mountain Realty

“In the current market it is vital to have the FACTS!  Jere Webb’s charts provide those facts and lend credibility to a listing presentation.  To present yourself as a professional in touch with the market you need to take Jere’s class and subscribe to receive his monthly charts.”  Chet Pipkin, Broker, Downs Realty

“I have always been a proponent of knowing your stats, both personally and market wise. Knowing what the market is doing statistically not only helps us know the trends of our business, but gives us confidence and helps us be knowledgeable and professional. In the end what we may ‘feel’ about how the market is doing may have little bearing in what it is actually doing. Statistics and numbers are the true indicators of market activity and trends. Webb Charts is a superior source of vital market statistics. Jere does all the legwork and allows us to use his efforts to maximize our effectiveness.”  Mike Gamblin, Broker/Owner, Mike Gamblin Real Estate

“No matter what industry you’re in, data is king. In real estate if you don’t know what the market is doing, how much inventory there is, how many are selling and have a format that is easy to present, you’re not going to be successful.  If you’re not using Webb Charts it would be like the Broncos trying to win a football game without their play Book.”  Terry Torrence – Broker/Manager, Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group

“Webb Charts have changed my business!  It’s great to have an accurate, reliable source of information that allows me to educate myself, my clients, and the public on what’s really going on in the real estate world.  Plus they are a great tool to “fight” the media’s dramatic and inaccurate real estate reporting.  They are an absolute must-have!”   Burma Naylor, Realtor/Co-Owner, Mountain Realty

“I am in my second year subscribing to Webb Charts and they have become a very important part of my business.  I rely on Jere’s statistics to prepare my reporting about the market to developers and builders.  I also incorporate some of Jere’s statistics into my farming plans and sphere mailings.”  Janeen Sanchez, Realtor, Coldwell Banker

“I have heard from many that there is data that is ‘free’ from their title companies & that we can get the information for ourselves off the MLS system.  I have a Marketing degree with a statistics emphasis and a strong understanding of Excel so I could create these reports myself.  However, obtaining accurate historical information would be difficult if not impossible (Webb Charts have several years of data).  And an even bigger question is, ‘would it be worth my time to create these reports?’  I know that once the original templates & macros are written it would still require some time & commitment to consistently get the data.  Also, when there is questionable data would I recognize it and follow-up to correct it like Jere does?  I question the wisdom in recreating the wheel, when I can subscribe to the Webb Charts.”  Gail Nussbaum, Realtor, Coldwell Banker

“The Webb Charts have been a great asset in my business over the last five years.  They paint a clear picture for my clients which helps give me an edge when competing for business.  Without the charts, it would be like shooting from the hip and/or guessing, which is not professional.”  Michael Simis, Realtor, Coldwell Banker

“I have found Jere’s Webb Charts to be invaluable in the operation of my business.  I use them with both Buyers and Sellers to assist them in understanding our local market and how it affects them personally.  We are constantly bombarded by the media with information that may not pertain to our market; the Webb Charts provide the ammo necessary to combat that.  The information is concise, current and in a format that is easy to present.”Bill Re, Silvercreek

“I have had the charts less than a week and I find myself sharing information from them constantly.  Keep up the good work!”  Ron Minegar, Broker/Owner Ron Minegar Real Estate

 

 




February 2014 Ada County Idaho Real Estate Market News

13 03 2014
1.  Sales are up 3% from last month, BUT 10% down from this same month last year.  Chart A3  This is the weakest Feb. since 2008-2011.
 
2.  Pending sales are UP 14% from last month, BUT and are down 11% from a year ago. Chart A47, A48, & A49.
 
3.  Distressed sales were up this month.  Short Sales were 6% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 8%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 14% of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%.  Chart A42
 
4.  Short Sales closing success % up,  – 13% this month.  12/10 high of 22%.  Low 1/14 at 9%.  A53 
 
5.  The dollar volume was down 3% from last month and 4% down from this same month last year.  Chart A5  Humm. . . So even though a few more homes sold in Feb. than Jan. the dollar volume was down???
 
6.  Year to date sales units Unchanged – 0% more units than a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 10% higher this year.  That spread is tightening indicating a slow down from the big price increases of 2012 and 2013.  Chart A6.  
7.  Median Price down for a home sold this month  – $198,950.  This is 5% down from last month; and a 10% increase from this same month last year!   Chart A10
 
8.  New Construction Median price UP this month – $302,500.  This is up 13% from last month; and a 26% increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9
9.  Resale Median down this month – $169,450.  This is down 11% from last month; and a 6% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.  Not a lot of upper end closings in February and that has really affected the median price for this one month.
 
10.  Affordability improved from last month- now 14%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.  Interest rates eased just a bit and median price decreased which accounts for this drop.  Charts A39, A40, and A41.
 
11.  Inventory is up 1% from last month and 22% higher than last year at this time.  While the inventory is still relatively low, the increase will effectively “slow” the rapid rise in prices.  Charts A16 & A17
 
12.  New Construction inventory down. – 749 from 783 last month.  Last year at this time there were 559 new homes for sale.  New Construction inventory has dropped for 58 of the last 89 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006.  Record low  0613 at 494 but it has surged up since then – Builders Beware!  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
 
13.  Resale inventory is up. – 1346 from 1286 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1157 resale homes for sale.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Some pent up demand being released here as more owners finally have a bit of equity and can make a move.  Chart A21
 
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down slightly.  This month’s 5.0 from 5.1 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .Record low 05/13 at 2.3!  Chart A26.
 
15.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    This month’s 5.1 from 4.2 last month.  This is a critical benchmark number.  Feb is always a high point since it is a rolling two month average on sales.  20012 it was 4.6, 2013 it was 4.1.
 
16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 7.8 from 6.6 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time it was 6.1.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A30
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 4.3 from 3.4 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.5 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
 
18.  Final Sales Discount is up.  From the last asking price to final sales price, 1.6% from 1.3% last month.  Record low – 06/13 .6%.  Last year at this time it was 1.3%.  Chart 43
 
19.  Future Business Forecast is above 100%.  A54.  122%  – so closings next month should be up from this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 125%.
 




2013 Ada County Real Estate News Update

7 01 2014

 DECEMBER 2013 Inside Scoop – Ada County

If you like to keep score 13vs. 6:o)
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in in Bold
 

1.  Sales are up 6% from last month, and 15% up from this same month last year.  Chart A3  Is the market slowing?  That is what everyone is wondering?  Looking at the comparisons to the same month last year the numbers for this year are: -6%, 4%, 8%, 9%, 35%, 19%, 40%, 15%, 23%, -1%, -4% and now +15% this month.  What caused this “rush to close” in December?  It didn’t happen in Ada, just Canyon.

 
4.  Short Sales closing success % up,  – 17% this month.  12/10 high of 22%.  Low 1/10 at 10%.  A53  December usually sees an increase but this year did not come up as much as prior ones.
5.  The dollar volume was up 6% from last month and 31% up from this same month last year in dollar volume of sales.  Chart A5
 
6.  Year to date sales units UP – 14% more units than a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 33% higher this year.  That spreads points to the approximately 19% price increase that there has been over the last year – leaving the distressed sales in the calculation!  Chart A6.  
 
8.  New Construction Median price up this month – $284,608.  This is up 3% from last month; and a 25% increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9 
 
10.  Affordability unchanged from last month- now 15%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.  So with the rapid rise in prices and the interest rate increase it is not as “affordable” now; but still much better than at the height of the market in 2006.  Charts A39, A40, and A41.
 
11.  Inventory is down 13% from last month and 16% higher than last year at this time.  While the inventory is still relatively low, the large increase will effectively “slow” the rapid rise in prices.  Charts A16 & A17
 
12.  New Construction inventory down. – 733 from 756 last month.  Last year at this time there were 583 new homes for sale.  New Construction inventory has dropped for 57 of the last 87 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006.  Record low  0613 at 494 but it has surged up since then – Builders Beware!  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
 
13.  Resale inventory is down. – 1285 from 1576 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1155 resale homes for sale.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Some pent up demand being released here as more owners finally have a bit of equity and can make a move.  Chart A21
 
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 3.5 from 4.2 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .Record low 05/13 at 2.3!  Chart A26.
 
15.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Keep an eye on chart A27, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    Chart A28 features a longer time period view of just the county wide average number.  This month’s 3.6 from 4.0 last month.
 
16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down slightly.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 6.1 from 6.2 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time it was 5.0  Builders Beware!  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A29 & A30
 
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 2.9 from 3.4 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 2.8 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A31 & A32
 
 




ADA COUNTY REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE

8 10 2013

SEPTEMBER 2013 Inside Scoop – Ada County

If you like to keep score 3vs. 16:o(
(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)
Positive News in inBold
 

1.  Sales are down 14% from last month, and 23% up from this same month last year.  Chart A3  Is the market slowing?  That is what everyone is wondering?  Looking at the comparisons to the same month last year the numbers for this year are: -6%, 4%, 8%, 9%, 35%, 19%, 40%, 15% and now 23% this month.

2.  Pending sales are down 12% from last month,and are down 13% from a year ago. Chart A47, A48, & A49.  This IS concerning.
 
3.  Distressed sales were down this month.  Short Sales were 5% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 3%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 9% of the sales “distressed” this month. (with rounding)  Record high was 12/10 at 61%.  This is the “healthiest market month” since February of 2008!  Chart A42
  
6.  Year to date sales units UP – 18% more units than a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 37% higher this year.  That spreads points to the approximately 19% price increase that there has been over the last year!  Chart A6.  
  
18.  Final Sales Discount is up.  From the last asking price to final sales price, 1.6% from 1.1% last month.  Record low – 06/13 .6%.  Last year at this time it was 1.0%.  Chart 43
 
19.  Future Business Forecast is below 100%.  A54.  82%  – so closings next month should be down from this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 88%.
For a complete version of the “Inside Scoop” call Jere Webb @ 208.861.2222
 




IS THE REAL ESTATE MARKET SLOWING?

13 09 2013

Recently I got several calls from a conscientious reporter at the Idaho Statesman.  He basically wanted an answer to this question – “What is happening right now in the Treasure Valley Real Estate Market?  Is it slowing?”

The short answer is “Yes.”  At this time of the year there is always a seasonal slowdown from the peak sales months of May, June, July, and August.  for a more complete analysis you have to look deeper into the numbers.  I will focus on Ada County.

1.  During the last 15 years, August sales have increased 8 times over July – 7 times there has been a decline.  But the 8% decline in 2013 marks a reversal from the 4 prior years which showed increases of 2%, 15%, 6%, and 12%.  Humm. . . that at least raises a note of concern.

2.  Interest rates have gone up since May almost 1%.  This has caused a bit of a “compression” in sales and accounts for the huge closing month in July.  It is only natural for buyers to get off the fence and try and get the deals closed when rates are increasing.  Comparing closed sales this year to the same month last year the numbers are quite revealing:  January -6%, February +4%, March +8%, April +9%, May +35%, June +19%, July +40%, August +15%.  The rise in interest rates has to be considered when you study those numbers.  Again my thought is “Humm. . . .”

3.  Checking Cumulative sales YtoD you can see the July push.  January started 6% lower than 2012, then by February sales were still 1% lower.  After that it was positive: March 3%, April 5%, May 12%, June 13%, July 18% and August 17% higher in 2013 than 2012.  That too, while still VERY strong, may signal a bit of slowing. . .

4.  What about pricing?  The Median resale price for a home in Ada County was virtually unchanged in August from July.  It actually went up by $100 from $189,900 to $190,000.  Again the “Cumulative” Median pricing for 2013 compared to 2012 gives a more accurate picture.  The year started strong with a 10% gain in January, February fell back to 6%, March moved up to 8%, April 10%, May 12%, June 15%, July 16% and August 17%.  No signs of a price slowdown at all!  In fact this puts the market back in equilibrium with a constant 3.7% appreciation using a base year of 2000 pricing.  The “bubble” of 2005-2008 is gone and so is the “depression” of 2010-2012.  In the price free fall 2009 just happened to catch the normal Median line on the way down!

5.   Inventory – With the rising prices more homeowners are finally able to sell.  There are more homes on the market now than there were over the past two years at his time.  This will slow the intense pressure on prices to skyrocket and help to stabilize growth at a more sustainable pace.  However make no mistake about it – there is still a housing shortage in Ada County.  The 2462 homes for sale at the end of August 2013 is nowhere near the 5125 in 2007 peak.

6.  The last data point that I want to check is new business written.  Here a case can certainly be made for “market slowing.”  609 contract were written in August.  This is just a little ahead of the number written in August the preceding 4 years: 2009 – 573,   2010 – 505,   2011 – 511,   2012 – 593.  However when you look at April – July of this year the numbers were much stronger when you compare them to the past 4 years.  Just comparing 2012 April-July with 2013 there was an average gain of 22%.  August was only up 3%.

Conclusion:  Yes there is some evidence of a market “slowdown” however most of the signs are still very positive.





MARCH 2013 MARKET PERSPECTIVE FOR BOISE ID

5 04 2013

As I look at the March Ada County numbers I see a lot of positive:

1.  Sales are up 20% from last month, and 8% up from this same month last year.  Chart A3
 
2.  Pending sales are up 21% from last month, and are up 12% from a year ago. New Construction surge continues up 34% from a year ago, resale pendings are up 5%. Chart A47, A48, & A49.
 
3.  Distressed sales were down this month.  Short Sales were 11% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 8%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 19% of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%.  This is the “healthiest” month since 09/08 in terms of the greatest % of Equity Sales!    Chart A42
 
4.  Short Sales closing success % unchanged,  – 14% this month.  12/10 high of 22%.  Low 1/10 at 10%.  A53
 
5.  The dollar volume was up 30% from last month and 38% up from this same month last year in dollar volume of sales.  Chart A5
 
6.  Year to date sales UP – 3% more units than a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 27% higher this year.  “Higher prices!”  Chart A6.  
 
7.  Median Price Up for a home sold this month  – $186,900.  This is 3% UP from last month; and a 23% increase from this same month last year!   Chart A10
 
8.  New Construction Median price up this month – $253,070.  This is up 5% from last month; and a 25% increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9
 
9.  Resale Median UP this month – $173,500.  This is up 8% from last month; and a 26% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.  
 
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 3.2 from 3.7 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .  Record low may have been – 04/12 at 3.0!  You have to go back to 05/06 to find a lower supply at 2.9!  . .Chart A26.
 
15.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Keep an eye on chart A27, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    Chart A28 features a longer time period view of just the county wide average number.  This month’s 3.5 from 4.1 last month.
 
16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 4.8 from 6.1 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time it was 6.5.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A29 & A30
 
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.1 from 3.5 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.3 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A31 & A32
 
19.  Future Business Forecast is up above 100%.  A54.  132%  – so closings next month should be up considerably from this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 130%.

For more information contact Jere Webb at 208.861.2222.  Or by email at jw@jerewebb.com

http://www.jerewebb.com





FEBRUARY 2013 MARKET PERSPECTIVE FOR BOISE ID

6 03 2013

As I look at the February Ada County numbers I see a lot of positive:

  1. Healthiest market in terms of Equity Inventory and Equity Sales since September 2008 except for a brief burst in August & September of 2012.
  2. Best February sales month in terms of units closed in 6 years – have to go back to 2007 to find a higher February.
  3. Sales $ volume up 20% over a year ago, unit volume up 4% – can you say “higher prices!”
  4. Median resale equity pricing so far this year is 5% higher than the equity median pricing for 2012.
  5. Looking at the 2 month rolling average for supply this February tops out lower than recent years so another sign that the market is moving in the right direction – 4.1 months of supply vs. 4.6 last year.  New construction is 6.1 vs. 7.9 last year.  Resale is 3.5 vs. 4.0 last year.

One cautionary note that I see buried deep in the numbers is this:  the “future business forecast number” is not as strong at this point as it has been in the past.

  • 2010 – 145%
  • 2011 – 133%
  • 2012 – 143%
  • 2013 – 125%

This is a calculation that predicts closing levels in the next 30-60 days based upon new business written, pending levels, etc.

For more information contact Jere Webb at 208.861.2222.  Or by email at jw@jerewebb.com

http://www.jerewebb.com

 





BOISE REAL ESTATE PRICES CONTINUE HIGHER

7 08 2012

The July 2012 numbers are in and prices continue to go up!  The resale median price for 2012 is 9.7% higher than it was for all of 2011.  Comparing just the year to date sales in 2012 with 2011 the gain is exactly still the same – 9.7%  This is huge!

National media perdictions were that our market would be up 4-5% each year for the next several years.  It looks like 2012 will certainly beat that, at least in Ada County.