ADA County Real Estate News

SEPTEMBER 2014 Inside Scoop – Ada County

If you like to keep score 6 vs.13 :o(

(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)

Positive News in in Bold

 

 

2.  Pending sales are up 3% from last month, down 1% from a year ago. Chart A47, A48, & A49.  This is good news!

 

6.  Year to date sales units down – 3% fewer units than a year ago Chart A4.  It had to happen with the lower levels of pendings month after month.  The year to date dollar volume is 2% higher this year.  That spread is tightening indicating a slow down from the big price increases of 2012 and 2013.  Chart A6.  

7.  Median Price down for a home sold this month  – $204,900.  This is 6% down from last month; and a 5% increase from this same month last year!   Chart A10

 

10.  Resale Affordability up from last month- now 15%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.   Charts A39, A40, and A41.

 

11.  Inventory is down 3% from last month and 12% higher than last year at this time.  While the inventory is still relatively low, the increase will effectively “slow” the rapid rise in prices.  Charts A16 & A17

 

12.  New Construction inventory up. – 870 from 818 last month.  Last year at this time there were 657 new homes for sale.  New Construction inventory has dropped for 59 of the last 96 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006.  Record low  0613 at 494 but it has surged up since then – Builders Beware!  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19

 

13.  Resale inventory is down. – 2024 form 2172 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1931 resale homes for sale.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Some pent up demand being released here as more owners finally have a bit of equity and can make a move.  Chart A21

17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.5 from 3.3 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.2 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32

 

18.  Final Sales Discount is down.  From the last asking price to final sales price, 1.5% from 1.7% last month.  Record low – 06/13 .6%.  Last year at this time it was 1.6%.  Chart 43

 

19.  Future Business Forecast is above 100%.  A54.  103%  – so closings next month will be above this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 82%.  So there was a surge of new escrows opened in September.  Good News!!!

 

 

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ADA County Real Estate News

 JULY 2014 Inside Scoop – Ada County

If you like to keep score 5 vs.14 :o(

(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)

Positive News in Bold

 

1.  Sales are up 2% from last month, 6% down from this same month last year.  Chart A3 

3.  Distressed sales were down this month.  Short Sales were 1% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 4%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 6% (with rounding)  of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%.  Chart A42

 

6.  Year to date sales units down – 3% fewer units than a year ago Chart A4.  It had to happen with the lower levels of pendings month after month.  The year to date dollar volume is 3% higher this year.  That spread is tightening indicating a slow down from the big price increases of 2012 and 2013.  Chart A6.  

7.  Median Price down for a home sold this month  – $212,592.  This is 2% down from last month; and a 3% increase from this same month last year!   Chart A10

 

8.  New Construction Median price down this month – $309,283.  This is down 3% from last month; and a 16% increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9

 

9.  Resale Median down this month – $195,000.  This is down 2% from last month; and a 3% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.

 

10.  Resale Affordability improved from last month- now 15%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.   Charts A39, A40, and A41.

 

12.  New Construction inventory up. – 782 from 746 last month.  Last year at this time there were 541 new homes for sale.  New Construction inventory has dropped for 59 of the last 94 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006.  Record low  0613 at 494 but it has surged up since then – Builders Beware!  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County!

 

14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is up.  This month’s 3.5 from 3.4 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .Record low 05/13 at 2.3!  Chart A26.

 

16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 4.9 from 5.1 from last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time it was 3.3.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A30

 

17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.2 from 3.1 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 2.6 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

HOW HIGH WILL BOISE HOME PRICES GO?

In case you haven’t noticed, real estate prices are on the rise again!  They had been falling every year since 2007.  That fact has been painfully apparent to anyone trying to sell a home in the Boise metropolitan area in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011.  Four years in a row of declining home values.  And now finally. . . .!

So what is happening?  Is this just a brief respite in an otherwise very negative national economic picture?  How high will prices go?  Should we expect another “bubble”?  And how do we know that prices are really up, perhaps it is just a reduction in “distressed” sales that is skewing the numbers?

On July 25 at Title One in Meridian I will be presenting the data to answer these and many more questions.  The “Webb Chart Class” will be attended by over 50 of the Treasure Valley’s top real estate agents so there will be a lot of brain power in the room!  For more than 10 years I have been publishing “Webb Charts” and doing statistical analysis specifically on this market.

Here are 5 specific market data pointers that the class will be studying on July 25 relative to pricing:

1.  The difference between sold units year to date and the dollar volume – 12%.

A4 0612 and A6 0612

2.  The increase in resale average sold price for the first 6 months of 2012 compared to the same period in 2011 – 11%

A9 0612

3.   The increase in resale median sold price for the first 6 months of 2012 – 11%

A12 0612

4.  Median resale price for the year 2012 so far compared to the entire year of 2011 – 8.1%

A55 0612

5.  Median resale price compared to a 3% trend line since 2000.  Where are prices now and where will they go from here?  And most importantly, how does this chart look after you have eliminated the “distressed sales?”

A57B 0612

Here is a link for more information on the July 25 classes:  http://wp.me/pShPn-5J

Starting A Fire

Have you ever tried to get a fire going with damp wood? I have and it wasn’t easy! We were camping and finally resorted to a bit of gasoline. Whoosh! The blaze was instantaneous. However after the gasoline had burned, the wood still hadn’t caught fire.

For the last 8 months the real estate market has been fueled by the tax credit and first time home buyers. Sales are up dramatically from the same month in the prior year. April closings in Ada & Canyon Counties will be strong as well.

Since the contracts only have to be signed by 4/30/10 and close by 6/30/10 it will be interesting to see what happens after the gas burns off.  What is your prediction?

Last week I published the March Statistics for Ada & Canyon County as well as The “Inside Scoop.” This is a very detailed analysis of the local real estate market available to subscribers through my Boise Idaho Realtor website

Hello Idaho Real Estate!

Thank you for visiting my Eagle Idaho Real Estate blog! It is my hope that through this portal I will be able to share with you the latest news and happenings in the greater Boise Idaho real estate market! Stay tuned to this spot for the most recent developments in home mortgage rates and what’s going on in real estate today! Want to start finding homes in Idaho that fit your needs? Visit my Idaho Realtor Website to search the local MLS for the best homes in Idaho available today! Therein you can learn more about the area, use mortgage calculators, view my available Idaho homes, and more!

I specialize in exceptional residential real estate service and have the skills to guide you through your next real estate transaction with ease. Whether you are looking to buy a new home in Idaho or sell your existing home I am glad to be part of that process – contact me, Jere Webb, for the best Idaho Realtor services online!