ADA County Real Estate News

  December 2015 Inside Scoop – Ada County

If you like to keep score 14 vs. 5 :o)

(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)

Positive News in in Bold

 

1.  Sales are up 27% from last month, 34% up from this same month last year.  Wow! Chart A3  WHY?

 

3.  Distressed sales were unchanged this month.  Short Sales were 2% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 1%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 3% of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%  A distant memory!  Chart A42

 

4.  Short Sales closing success % up – 23% this month.  12/15 high of 23%.  Record Low 11/14 at 9%.  A53.

 

5.  The dollar volume was up 24% from last month and 39% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5 

 

6.  Year to date sales units up 20% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 29% higher this year.  Much bigger price increases this year cp. to 2014!  Chart A6.  

10.  Resale Affordability unchanged from last month- now 16%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.   Charts A39, A40, and A41.

 

11.  Inventory is down 11% from last month and 8% lower than last year at this time.  This is a very significant number.  Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more.  Charts A16 & A17

 

12.  New Construction inventory down. – 846 from 856 last month.  Last year at this time there were 809 new homes for sale.  Record high 09/06 at 1890!  Record low  06/13 at 494 but it has surged up since then.  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19

 

13.  Resale inventory is down. – 918 from 1122 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1117 resale homes for sale!!!.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Chart A21

 

14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 2.2 from 3.1 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .New Record Low 12/15 2.2!  Previous Record low 05/13 at 2.3!  Chart A26.

 

15.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is unchanged.  Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    This month’s 2.5 from 2.8 last month.  This is a critical benchmark number.  Last year at this time it was 3.4.  Chart A28

 

16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 5.0 from 5.6 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time there was a 7.0 month inventory supply.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A30

17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 1.7 from 2.0 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 2.5 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32

 

18.  Final Sales Discount is unchanged.  From the last asking price to final sales price, 0.9% from 0.9% last month.  Record low – 06/13 .6%.  Last year at this time it was 1.7%.  Chart 43

 

 

ADA County Real Estate News

 October 2015 Inside Scoop – Ada County

If you like to keep score 8 vs. 11 :o(

(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)

Positive News in in Bold

 

1.  Sales are down 0% from last month, 21% up from this same month last year.  Wow! Chart A3

 

2.  Pending sales are down 4% from last month, up 34% from a year ago.  Wow, this is huge!  Chart A47, A48, & A49.

 

3.  Distressed sales were down this month.  Short Sales were 1% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 2%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 3% of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%  A distant memory!  Chart A42

 

6.  Year to date sales units up 19% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 29% higher this year.  Much bigger price increases this year cp. to 2014!  Chart A6.  

7.  Median Price down for a home sold this month  – $229,800.  This is 0% down from last month; and a 10% increase from this same month last year!    Chart A10

 

10.  Resale Affordability unchanged from last month- now 16%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.   Charts A39, A40, and A41.

 

11.  Inventory is down 8% from last month and 13% lower than last year at this time.  This is a very significant number.  Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more.  Charts A16 & A17

 

13.  Resale inventory is down. – 1453 from 1672 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1761 resale homes for sale!!!.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Chart A21

 

15.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    This month’s 2.8 from 2.9 last month.  This is a critical benchmark number.  Last year at this time it was 4.0.  Chart A28

 

16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 5.3 from 5.7 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time there was a 6.7 month inventory supply.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A30

17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 2.2 from 2.4 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.3 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32

 

 

 

ADA COUNTY REAL ESTATE NEWS

GUST 2015 Inside Scoop – Ada County

If you like to keep score 6 vs. 13 :o(

(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)

Positive News in in Bold

 

1.  Sales are down 15% from last month, 13% up from this same month last year.  Wow! Chart A3

 

2.  Pending sales are down 4% from last month, up 41% from a year ago.  Wow, this is huge!  Chart A47, A48, & A49.

 

5.  The dollar volume was down 17% from last month and 18% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5 

 

6.  Year to date sales units up 18% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 27% higher this year.  Much bigger price increases this year cp. to 2014!  Chart A6.  

7.  Median Price up for a home sold this month  – $232,000.  This is 1% up from last month; and a 6% increase from this same month last year!    Chart A10

 

8.  New Construction Median price up this month – $349,642.  This is up 22% from last month; and a 17% increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9

 

10.  Resale Affordability unchanged from last month- now 17%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.   Charts A39, A40, and A41.

 

11.  Inventory is down 2% from last month and 18% lower than last year at this time.  This is a very significant number.  Watch this, if it stays this much below last year’s levels price increases will heat up even more.  Charts A16 & A17

 

12.  New Construction inventory up. – 752 from 749 last month.  Last year at this time there were 818 new homes for sale.  New Construction inventory has dropped for 64 of the last 107 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006.  Record low  0613 at 494 but it has surged up since then.  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19

 

13.  Resale inventory is down. – 1709 from 1760 last month.   Last year at this time there were 2172 resale homes for sale!!!.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Chart A21

17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 2.2 from 2.0 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.3 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32

 

 

 

ADA County Real Estate News

MARCH 2015 Inside Scoop – Ada County

If you like to keep score 14 vs. 5 :o)

(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)

Positive News in in Bold

 

1.  Sales are UP 38% from last month, 21% up from this same month last year.  Wow! Chart A3

 

2.  Pending sales are UP 24% from last month, up 20% from a year ago. This is strong!  Chart A47, A48, & A49.

 

3.  Distressed sales were down this month.  Short Sales were 2% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 4%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 6% of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%.  Chart A42

 

4.  Short Sales closing success % UP – 20% this month.  12/10 high of 22%.  Record Low 11/14 at 9%.  A53.

 

5.  The dollar volume was UP 44% from last month and 34% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5 

 

6.  Year to date sales units up 15% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 25% higher this year.  At the class on 2.18 didn’t we all say that prices in 2015 would rise at a greater rate than 2014!  Chart A6.  

7.  Median Price UP for a home sold this month  – $222,700.  This is 1% up from last month; and a 12% increase from this same month last year!    Chart A10

9.  Resale Median UP this month – $210,000.  This is up 7% from last month; and a 16% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.

14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  So demand is outpacing supply!  This month’s 3.0 from 3.8 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .Record low 05/13 at 2.3!  Chart A26.

 

15.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    This month’s 3.5 from 4.2 last month.  This is a critical benchmark number.  Last year at this time it was 4.4.  Chart A28

 

16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 6.1 from 7.1 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time there was a 6.6 month inventory supply.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A30

17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 2,8 from 3.4 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.8 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32

 

18.  Final Sales Discount is down.  From the last asking price to final sales price, 1.2% from 1.5% last month.  Record low – 06/13 .6%.  Last year at this time it was 1.1%.  Chart 43

 

19.  Future Business Forecast is above 100%.  A54.  133%  – so closings next month will be above this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 122%.

 

 

ADA County Real Estate News

FEBRUARY 2015 Inside Scoop – Ada County

If you like to keep score 9 vs. 10 :o(

(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)

Positive News in in Bold

 

1.  Sales are UP 22% from last month, 23% up from this same month last year.  Wow! Chart A3

 

2.  Pending sales are UP 21% from last month, up 13% from a year ago. This is strong!  Chart A47, A48, & A49.

 

3.  Distressed sales were down this month.  Short Sales were 3% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 5%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 8% of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%.  

 

5.  The dollar volume was UP 22% from last month and 37% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5 

 

6.  Year to date sales units up 12% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 22% higher this year.  At the class on 2.18 didn’t we all say that prices in 2015 would rise at a greater rate than 2014!  Chart A6.  

9.  Resale Median UP this month – $196,750.  This is up 2% from last month; and a 16% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.

 

11.  Inventory is up 2% from last month and 6% lower than last year at this time.  Watch this, if it stays below last year’s levels price increases will heat up again.  Well they already have!  Charts A16 & A17

 

12.  New Construction inventory down. – 725 from 793 last month.  Last year at this time there were 743 new homes for sale.  So the inventory increase is on the resale side.  New Construction inventory has dropped for 63 of the last 101 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006.  Record low  0613 at 494 but it has surged up since then – Builders Beware!  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19

 

14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 3.8 from 4.6 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .Record low 05/13 at 2.3!  Chart A26.

 

17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.4 from 2.8 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 4.3 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32

 

19.  Future Business Forecast is above 100%.  A54.  135%  – so closings next month will be above this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 122%.

 

ADA Country Real Estate News

  JANUARY 2015 Inside Scoop – Ada County

If you like to keep score 11 vs. 8 :o)

(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)

Positive News in in Bold

 

 

2.  Pending sales are UP 22% from last month, up 6% from a year ago. Chart A47, A48, & A49.

 

4.  Short Sales closing success % up – 19% this month.  12/10 high of 22%.  Record Low 11/14 at 9%.  A53.

 

5.  The dollar volume was down 31% from last month and 9% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5 

 

6.  Year to date sales units up 3% from a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 9% higher this year.  Chart A6.  

7.  Median Price up for a home sold this month  – $222,000.  This is 2% up from last month; and a 6% increase from this same month last year!    Chart A10

 

10.  Resale Affordability unchanged from last month- now 15%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.   Charts A39, A40, and A41.

 

11.  Inventory is down 0% from last month and 7% lower than last year at this time.  Watch this, if it stays below last year’s levels price increases will heat up again.  Charts A16 & A17

 

12.  New Construction inventory down. – 793 from 809 last month.  Last year at this time there were 783 new homes for sale.  So the inventory decrease is on the resale side.  New Construction inventory has dropped for 62 of the last 100 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006.  Record low  0613 at 494 but it has surged up since then – Builders Beware!  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19

16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is unchanged.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 7.0 from 7.0 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time there was a 6.6 month inventory supply.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A30

17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 2.8 from 2.5 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.4 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32

 

18.  Final Sales Discount is down.  From the last asking price to final sales price, 1.4% from 1.6% last month.  Record low – 06/13 .6%.  Last year at this time it was 1.3%.  Chart 43

 

19.  Future Business Forecast is above 100%.  A54.  134%  – so closings next month will be above this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 131%.

 

 

ADA County Real Estate News

  NOVEMBER 2013 Inside Scoop – Ada County

If you like to keep score 5 vs. 14 :o(

(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)

Positive News in in Bold

 

2.  Pending sales are down 7% from last month, and are up 0% from a year ago. Chart A47, A48, & A49.

5.  The dollar volume was down 14% from last month and 9% up from this same month last year in dollar volume of sales.  Chart A5

 

6.  Year to date sales units UP – 14% more units than a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 33% higher this year.  That spreads points to the approximately 19% price increase that there has been over the last year – leaving the distressed sales in the calculation!  Chart A6.  

7.  Median Price down for a home sold this month  – $207,500.  This is 3% down from last month; and a 18% increase from this same month last year!   Chart A10

 

8.  New Construction Median price down this month – $274,985.  This is down 2% from last month; and a 10% increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9

 

10.  Affordability unchanged from last month- now 15%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.  So with the rapid rise in prices and the interest rate increase it is not as “affordable” now; but still much better than at the height of the market in 2006.  Charts A39, A40, and A41.

 

11.  Inventory is down 8% from last month and 24% higher than last year at this time.  While the inventory is still relatively low, the large increase will effectively “slow” the rapid rise in prices.  Charts A16 & A17

13.  Resale inventory is down. – 1576 from 1812 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1316 resale homes for sale.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Some pent up demand being released here as more owners finally have a bit of equity and can make a move.  Chart A21

17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down slightly.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.4 from 3.5 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 2.9 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A31 & A32

 

 

 

ADA County Real Estate News

  OCTOBER 2014 Inside Scoop – Ada County

If you like to keep score 16 vs.3 :o)

(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)

Positive News in in Bold

 

1.  Sales are up 1% from last month, 7% up from this same month last year.  Chart A3  Here is the “uptick” we noted was coming last month.

 

3.  Distressed sales were down this month.  Short Sales were 2% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 4%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 6% of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%.  Chart A42

 

4.  Short Sales closing success % up – 13% this month.  12/10 high of 22%.  Low 1/14 at 9%.  A53.

 

5.  The dollar volume was up 5% from last month and 6% up from this same month last year.  Chart A5 

 

7.  Median Price up for a home sold this month  – $208,448.  This is 2% up from last month; and a 3% decrease from this same month last year!   This is the first month in 2014 when the median price has been below the same month from the preceding year. . .   Caution!  Further evidence of prices flattening.  Chart A10

 

8.  New Construction Median price up this month – $304,900.  This is up 7% from last month; and a 9% increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9

 

9.  Resale Median up this month – $190,500.  This is up 0% from last month; and a 0% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.

 

10.  Resale Affordability unchanged from last month- now 15%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.   Charts A39, A40, and A41.

 

11.  Inventory is down 10% from last month and 4% higher than last year at this time.  While the inventory is still relatively low, the increase will effectively “slow” the rapid rise in prices.  Charts A16 & A17

 

12.  New Construction inventory down. – 852 from 870 last month.  Last year at this time there were 705 new homes for sale.  New Construction inventory has dropped for 60 of the last 97 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006.  Record low  0613 at 494 but it has surged up since then – Builders Beware!  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19

 

13.  Resale inventory is down. – 1761 from 2024 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1812 resale homes for sale.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Chart A21

 

14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 3.9 from 4.4 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .Record low 05/13 at 2.3!  Chart A26.

 

15.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    This month’s 4.0 from 4.1 last month.  This is a critical benchmark number.

 

16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 6.7 from 7.0 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time it was 5.1.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A30

17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.3 from 3.5 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.5 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32

 

18.  Final Sales Discount is down.  From the last asking price to final sales price, 1.4% from 1.5% last month.  Record low – 06/13 .6%.  Last year at this time it was 1.3%.  Chart 43

 

ADA County Real Estate News

AUGUST 2014 Inside Scoop – Ada County

If you like to keep score 4 vs.15 :o(

(I am only counting an item as “Positive” if the first part is in bold)

Positive News in in Bold

 

 

 

3.  Distressed sales were unchanged this month.  Short Sales were 3% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 3%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 6% of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%.  Chart A42

 

4.  Short Sales closing success % up – 18% this month.  12/10 high of 22%.  Low 1/14 at 9%.  A53.

 

6.  Year to date sales units down – 3% fewer units than a year ago Chart A4.  It had to happen with the lower levels of pendings month after month.  The year to date dollar volume is 3% higher this year.  That spread is tightening indicating a slow down from the big price increases of 2012 and 2013.  Chart A6.  

7.  Median Price up for a home sold this month  – $218,745.  This is 3% up from last month; and a 8% increase from this same month last year!   Chart A10

 

9.  Resale Median up this month – $204,600.  This is up 5% from last month; and a 8% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.

 

10.  Resale Affordability down from last month- now 16%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.   Charts A39, A40, and A41.

12.  New Construction inventory up. – 818 from 782 last month.  Last year at this time there were 607 new homes for sale.  New Construction inventory has dropped for 59 of the last 95 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006.  Record low  0613 at 494 but it has surged up since then – Builders Beware!  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19

 

 

16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 5.7 from 4.9 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time it was 3.8.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A30

 

 

 

MARCH 2013 MARKET PERSPECTIVE FOR BOISE ID

As I look at the March Ada County numbers I see a lot of positive:

1.  Sales are up 20% from last month, and 8% up from this same month last year.  Chart A3

 

2.  Pending sales are up 21% from last month, and are up 12% from a year ago. New Construction surge continues up 34% from a year ago, resale pendings are up 5%. Chart A47, A48, & A49.

 

3.  Distressed sales were down this month.  Short Sales were 11% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 8%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 19% of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%.  This is the “healthiest” month since 09/08 in terms of the greatest % of Equity Sales!    Chart A42

 

4.  Short Sales closing success % unchanged,  – 14% this month.  12/10 high of 22%.  Low 1/10 at 10%.  A53

 

5.  The dollar volume was up 30% from last month and 38% up from this same month last year in dollar volume of sales.  Chart A5

 

6.  Year to date sales UP – 3% more units than a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 27% higher this year.  “Higher prices!”  Chart A6.  

 

7.  Median Price Up for a home sold this month  – $186,900.  This is 3% UP from last month; and a 23% increase from this same month last year!   Chart A10

 

8.  New Construction Median price up this month – $253,070.  This is up 5% from last month; and a 25% increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9

 

9.  Resale Median UP this month – $173,500.  This is up 8% from last month; and a 26% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.  

 

14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down.  This month’s 3.2 from 3.7 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .  Record low may have been – 04/12 at 3.0!  You have to go back to 05/06 to find a lower supply at 2.9!  . .Chart A26.

 

15.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Keep an eye on chart A27, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    Chart A28 features a longer time period view of just the county wide average number.  This month’s 3.5 from 4.1 last month.

 

16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 4.8 from 6.1 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time it was 6.5.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A29 & A30

 

17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is down.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 3.1 from 3.5 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.3 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A31 & A32

 

19.  Future Business Forecast is up above 100%.  A54.  132%  – so closings next month should be up considerably from this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 130%.

For more information contact Jere Webb at 208.861.2222.  Or by email at jw@jerewebb.com

http://www.jerewebb.com