FEBRUARY 2013 MARKET PERSPECTIVE FOR BOISE ID

6 03 2013

As I look at the February Ada County numbers I see a lot of positive:

  1. Healthiest market in terms of Equity Inventory and Equity Sales since September 2008 except for a brief burst in August & September of 2012.
  2. Best February sales month in terms of units closed in 6 years – have to go back to 2007 to find a higher February.
  3. Sales $ volume up 20% over a year ago, unit volume up 4% – can you say “higher prices!”
  4. Median resale equity pricing so far this year is 5% higher than the equity median pricing for 2012.
  5. Looking at the 2 month rolling average for supply this February tops out lower than recent years so another sign that the market is moving in the right direction – 4.1 months of supply vs. 4.6 last year.  New construction is 6.1 vs. 7.9 last year.  Resale is 3.5 vs. 4.0 last year.

One cautionary note that I see buried deep in the numbers is this:  the “future business forecast number” is not as strong at this point as it has been in the past.

  • 2010 – 145%
  • 2011 – 133%
  • 2012 – 143%
  • 2013 – 125%

This is a calculation that predicts closing levels in the next 30-60 days based upon new business written, pending levels, etc.

For more information contact Jere Webb at 208.861.2222.  Or by email at jw@jerewebb.com

http://www.jerewebb.com

 

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BOISE REAL ESTATE PRICES CONTINUE HIGHER

7 08 2012

The July 2012 numbers are in and prices continue to go up!  The resale median price for 2012 is 9.7% higher than it was for all of 2011.  Comparing just the year to date sales in 2012 with 2011 the gain is exactly still the same – 9.7%  This is huge!

National media perdictions were that our market would be up 4-5% each year for the next several years.  It looks like 2012 will certainly beat that, at least in Ada County.





HOW HIGH WILL BOISE HOME PRICES GO?

6 07 2012

In case you haven’t noticed, real estate prices are on the rise again!  They had been falling every year since 2007.  That fact has been painfully apparent to anyone trying to sell a home in the Boise metropolitan area in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011.  Four years in a row of declining home values.  And now finally. . . .!

So what is happening?  Is this just a brief respite in an otherwise very negative national economic picture?  How high will prices go?  Should we expect another “bubble”?  And how do we know that prices are really up, perhaps it is just a reduction in “distressed” sales that is skewing the numbers?

On July 25 at Title One in Meridian I will be presenting the data to answer these and many more questions.  The “Webb Chart Class” will be attended by over 50 of the Treasure Valley’s top real estate agents so there will be a lot of brain power in the room!  For more than 10 years I have been publishing “Webb Charts” and doing statistical analysis specifically on this market.

Here are 5 specific market data pointers that the class will be studying on July 25 relative to pricing:

1.  The difference between sold units year to date and the dollar volume – 12%.

A4 0612 and A6 0612

2.  The increase in resale average sold price for the first 6 months of 2012 compared to the same period in 2011 – 11%

A9 0612

3.   The increase in resale median sold price for the first 6 months of 2012 – 11%

A12 0612

4.  Median resale price for the year 2012 so far compared to the entire year of 2011 – 8.1%

A55 0612

5.  Median resale price compared to a 3% trend line since 2000.  Where are prices now and where will they go from here?  And most importantly, how does this chart look after you have eliminated the “distressed sales?”

A57B 0612

Here is a link for more information on the July 25 classes:  http://wp.me/pShPn-5J





FURTHER EVIDENCE OF RISING REAL ESTATE PRICES IN BOISE

4 05 2012

A4 – Ada County Sold Units

A6 – Dollar Volume Year to Date

It is pretty obvious when you compare these two numbers:

Ada County sold units January – April 2012 10% higher than 2011.
Ada County Dollar Volume for the same period 19% higher than 2011.





Boise Home Prices – 3. . . 4. . . 6!

28 03 2012

These are important numbers for anyone interested in Ada County real estate. Here is what they mean: In January the median sales price of a resale home was up 3% over January 2011. A gain, that is a good thing!

In February the Year to date Median was up 4% over 2011. Even better!

Now in March, checking it today just prior to the month’s ending the news is even better! The median sales price year to date is now up 6% in 2012 over 2011. So the national predictions that I have read recently predicting a 4-6% gain in 2012 may well be exceeded!

Why? A combination of two things happening right now here in the Treasure Valley. First there is an extremely low inventory of available homes for sale. Secondly, demand is increasing every year for the last 3 years. Look around at all of the new commercial construction. . . Eagle road, Chinden, Downtown +++ Things are popping.

Buyers are starting to get the message and are moving off the fence. One year from now the home that costs 185 could be close to 200!





ADA COUNTY REAL ESTATE NEWS IS ALL GOOD IN FEBRUARY!

7 03 2012

Sales are up!  Pendings are up!  Dollar Volume is up!  Median pricing is up!  Future Business Forecast is up!  Inventories are down!  Distressed sales are down!

Almost anyway that you look at the February stats, there is a lot to encourage optimism right now in this market.  Buyers are starting to catch on and are moving off the fence.  Investors are beginning to appear again as the news is getting out.

One of the most telling facts is simply this:  At the close of 2011 the National Association of Realtors report showed an 8.1 months supply of resale homes in the United States.  That same calculation for Ada County reveals only a 3.1 months of supply.  That is huge!

You don’t have to have an advanced degree in economics to predict that prices will rise again finally here in 2012.  I believe that 4-6% is very likely for the county.  And some areas such as Eagle will experience an even higher increase.





Treasure Valley Real Estate Market Shows Steady Progress

7 02 2012

The January 2012 numbers are in and there is a lot to encourage Boise area homeowners!  After hitting a low in 2008, the past three years have shown an increase in the number of homes sold every year.  January continues that pattern with 13% more homes sold than January of 2011.

A3 – Ada County Monthly Sales Units

The dolloar volume was also up 10% from a year ago showing signs that price declines are either over or at least greatly slowing.  Since the resale median price set a new record low in 1/11 this month’s increase of 3% over that is especially significant.

A12 – Ada County EXISTING Monthly MEDIAN Sales Price

A strong case can be made for higher prices based upon demand and inventory levels.  January 2012 continues to reflect record low inventories of unsold homes.  My sense is that has to translate into higher prices – good news that has been a long time in coming!





RECORD LOW REAL ESTATE INVENTORY IN THE TREASURE VALLEY

6 01 2012

For the first time in 70 months home inventory has fallen below the 2,000 level in Ada County.  You have to go back to January of 2006 to find a time when inventory levels were lower than this!  Canyon is the same with the inventory dropping below 900 for the first time since February 2006.

A16 – Ada County Residential INVENTORY

So, what does this mean?  Fewer options for buyers, prices will continue to firm up.  It is now a seller’s market at a very greatly adjusted pricing point.  In general the prices are back to 2002 levels!  But there is only a 3.1 months supply of resale homes currently on the market.  New Construction is a different story.  Builders are pushing ahead as much as they dare with more than a 7 months supply of homes available.





PRICING INCREASES FOR TREASURE VALLEY REAL ESTATE

6 01 2012

The Median price for a resale home in Ada County was 7% higher in December than the January 2011 low point.  That is a sign that the Valley real estate market may have bottomed out several months ago.  Here is a chart that takes a longer term view and plots 6 month blocks of median pricing.

A15 – Ada County EXISTING Last 6 Months MEDIAN Sales Price

The December decrease reflects a seasonal pattern that has repeated itself for the past 6 years.  Once the January 2012 numbers are in we will have an excellent reference point to compare with the previous low in 2011.

 





BOISE HOME PRICE MOVING UP – INVENTORY DOWN

5 12 2011

The median price of a resale home in Ada County was $138,200 in November.  This is up 9% from the low of $126,500 in January 2011.  Even more significant than a single month is the gain being posted using a “6 month rolling median”.  Using this measurement, June 2011 was the low point and there have been solid gains since then.  Check out this chart!

A15 – Ada County EXISTING Last 6 Months MEDIAN Sales Price 

Canyon County is showing a gaudy 17% increase in Median Sales price this month over the low 5/11 of $72,500!

Inventory continues its downward trend at a rate that can only signal additional upward price pressure in coming months.  At this time in 2007 there were 4542 homes on the market for sale.  November of 2011 – 2166.  That is less than half!  Also at this time 397 of the listings shown as “Active” already have short sale contracts on them.  So in reality there are only 1769 homes that are truly “Active” for sale at this moment.  You have to go back to 2000 & 2005 to find an inventory lower at the end of November.   Here is a picture:

A16 – Ada County Residential INVENTORY

What this also signals is a rebirth of new construction coming in 2012.  Smart builders will be careful however to position specs at the right price points.  The lower ones are already flooded.  Believe it or not there is a niche open between 300 and 500 thousand for new construction right now!  Here are two charts that back that up.

AC24 – NOVEMBER 2011 YTD SELLING ODDS New Construction

A45 – Ada County Year to Date SALES & INVENTORY ANALYSIS New Construction –

If you would like more information please call:  Jere Webb, Realtor.  Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group.  208.861.2222