February 2014 Ada County Idaho Real Estate Market News

13 03 2014
1.  Sales are up 3% from last month, BUT 10% down from this same month last year.  Chart A3  This is the weakest Feb. since 2008-2011.
 
2.  Pending sales are UP 14% from last month, BUT and are down 11% from a year ago. Chart A47, A48, & A49.
 
3.  Distressed sales were up this month.  Short Sales were 6% of the total sales this month.  Record high 01/12 23%.  REO sales were 8%.  Record High 12/10 at 40%. That makes 14% of the sales “distressed” this month.  Record high was 12/10 at 61%.  Chart A42
 
4.  Short Sales closing success % up,  – 13% this month.  12/10 high of 22%.  Low 1/14 at 9%.  A53 
 
5.  The dollar volume was down 3% from last month and 4% down from this same month last year.  Chart A5  Humm. . . So even though a few more homes sold in Feb. than Jan. the dollar volume was down???
 
6.  Year to date sales units Unchanged – 0% more units than a year ago Chart A4.  The year to date dollar volume is 10% higher this year.  That spread is tightening indicating a slow down from the big price increases of 2012 and 2013.  Chart A6.  
7.  Median Price down for a home sold this month  – $198,950.  This is 5% down from last month; and a 10% increase from this same month last year!   Chart A10
 
8.  New Construction Median price UP this month – $302,500.  This is up 13% from last month; and a 26% increase from this same month last year.  Big swings in new construction stats since we are dealing with such small numbers of houses sold!  Chart A9
9.  Resale Median down this month – $169,450.  This is down 11% from last month; and a 6% increase from this same month last year.  Record low 01/11 at $126,500.  Chart A12.  Not a lot of upper end closings in February and that has really affected the median price for this one month.
 
10.  Affordability improved from last month- now 14%.  Jan. 2005 when I started tracking Affordability it took 19% of a median income to buy a median priced resale home at the then current Freddie Mac interest rate PITI.  06/06 was the high (most Unaffordable!) at 30%  Record for the most “affordable month” 01/12 at 10.9%.  Interest rates eased just a bit and median price decreased which accounts for this drop.  Charts A39, A40, and A41.
 
11.  Inventory is up 1% from last month and 22% higher than last year at this time.  While the inventory is still relatively low, the increase will effectively “slow” the rapid rise in prices.  Charts A16 & A17
 
12.  New Construction inventory down. – 749 from 783 last month.  Last year at this time there were 559 new homes for sale.  New Construction inventory has dropped for 58 of the last 89 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006.  Record low  0613 at 494 but it has surged up since then – Builders Beware!  I have only been tracking it since January of 2005; so 6/13 is at least a 9 year low for New Construction inventory in Ada County! Chart A19
 
13.  Resale inventory is up. – 1346 from 1286 last month.   Last year at this time there were 1157 resale homes for sale.  July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920!   July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.  Some pent up demand being released here as more owners finally have a bit of equity and can make a move.  Chart A21
 
14.  Single Month Measurement of Inventory Supply is down slightly.  This month’s 5.0 from 5.1 month’s of inventory last month.  This is a calculation of single month snaps – inventory for a particular month divided by that month’s sales – no averaging.  January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.  . .Record low 05/13 at 2.3!  Chart A26.
 
15.  Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Keep an eye on chart A28, especially the county wide number that I have put in bold!  This correlates the number of buyers with the available inventory using a “2 month rolling average” to calculate the sales.    This month’s 5.1 from 4.2 last month.  This is a critical benchmark number.  Feb is always a high point since it is a rolling two month average on sales.  20012 it was 4.6, 2013 it was 4.1.
 
16.  New Construction Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 7.8 from 6.6 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 17.3 months of inventory. Last year at this time it was 6.1.  September 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at 1.3.  Charts A30
17.  Resale Two Month Rolling Average of Inventory Supply is up.  Selling odds, using a “2 month rolling average” for sales is 4.3 from 3.4 last month.  February 2009 set a record high of 15.6. Last year at this time there were 3.5 months of resale inventory.  July 2005 was the peak of the seller’s market at .9.  Charts A32
 
18.  Final Sales Discount is up.  From the last asking price to final sales price, 1.6% from 1.3% last month.  Record low – 06/13 .6%.  Last year at this time it was 1.3%.  Chart 43
 
19.  Future Business Forecast is above 100%.  A54.  122%  – so closings next month should be up from this month’s level.  Last year at this time it was 125%.
 
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